Trading Plans for THU. 10/10/24 – Hotter than CPI but Cooler Reaction to it So Far
This morning’s hotter-than-expected CPI could potentially raise concerns about the pace of the Fed rate cuts going forward. This has the potential to give some pause to the bulls, but the market action so far does not seem to reflect that. Last week’s NFP numbers reinforced the much better ADP Private Payrolls data which thus far seemed to spur market “disappointment” that the economy may not be as bad as was “hoped for”(?) to warrant the Fed to continue to cut rates aggressively. It would be interesting to see if the opposite reaction to the much better NFP numbers so far can sustain this week.
Geopolitical tensions and Germany’s recent inflation numbers could add fresh concerns to the concerns about potential Global slow down and whether China’s stimulus would be sufficient to rekindle its growth. Any macro upside catalysts are hard to see coming by unless some unexpected stories emerge to stoke fresh enthusiasm in the market bulls who seem to be feeling a bit exhausted.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 5815 5810 5800 5777 5763 5753 5737 with an 7-point trailing stop except for 5815 which comes with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 5809 5797 5775 5761 5750 5735 with no trailing stop.
Models also indicate selling a 5825 Call and a 5760 Put expiring today on the front month contract, at market at 9:36am ET.
Models indicate explicit long exits at 5813 5783 (if touched from above), and explicit short exits at 5787 (if touched from below). Models also indicate instituting a break-even stop (which would trigger on an if-touched from above/below basis when in effect) once a position hits a 3-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:36am ET.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight (unless otherwise stated explicitly) – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check our latest Results posting to see for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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