Traders' A.I.

Model Biases/Outlook:

For the last few sessions, our bias has been: Considering the run-away bull action last few weeks and the gap up that is yet to be filled since last Thursday’s open, our models are cautiously ignoring the apparent bullish action and staying in “indeterministic” state for today, Monday, 09/17. 

Given that the gap is filled on 09/17, our models currently sport a cautiously bullish bias for Fri, 09/20, for the second day in a row, with no bearish concerns until all the way below 2875. This cautious stand is due to the gap up yesterday, Thu 09/20.  

A Brief Trace Back of The Current Bias/Outlook

After 14 consecutive days of bearish bias, our models have negated the bearish bias on last Friday, 07/06/18 when it closed at 2759.82! Since then, our models have been consistently forecasting bullish strength and are yet to flash any concerns about any bears in sight, until Friday, 07/27.

After reiterating the bullish momentum for 21 consecutive days, our models abandoned the bullish bias with the action on last Friday 07/27, but have NOT replaced it with bearish bias yet. We were in this “neither bullish, nor bearish” state until Tue 08/07.

Eight days after the “neutral/indeterminate” bias, our models have resumed the bullish bias as of Tue 08/07. We continued this bullish bias for 30 consecutive days, till Thu 09/06, when the index broke below 2885, a level that our models have been indicating as key for the next directional bias. 

On Friday, 09/07, our models have entered an “indeterminate” state and have negated the bullish bias, but have not adapted a bearish bias, yet. After reiterating this indeterminate bias for seven consecutive days, our models now have adopted a “slightly bullish” bias on Wed 09/19. 

For Fri, 09/21, we reiterate this bullish bias, with a cautious stand about the gap up from yesterday, Thu 09/20.

Trading Plans for FRI, 09/21:

Medium-term/long-term Investors

Our S&P 500 Index Medium-term models’ Trading Plans for Thu, 09/20 – published before the markets opened – stated: “For the second day in a row, our medium term models indicate going long above the break of 2913 on the index level, with a stop-loss at 2892″ (to verify this claim click here for the full forecast published) The market action broke above 2913 and our medium term models are currently long from 2913, sitting on a profit of 17.75 points as of the close of the session Thursday, 09/20. 

For today’s regular session, the medium term models indicate carrying through this long position with a stop at 2922 to lock in a 9-point profit should the market fall. If this stop is hit, then the models indicate staying flat for the rest of the session. 

Aggressive, Short-term, Intraday, or Professional Traders

Our Aggressive, Intraday models have been carrying a long position, entered at 2906.25 on Wednesday, 09/19, with a trailing stop of 6-points.  

For today’s regular session, aggressive intraday models are raising the trailing stop to 10-points and indicate carrying the long trade until the trailing stop is hit (remember, the trailing stop floats with the market’s move up but remains constant when the market goes down). 

At yesterday’s session high of 2934.80, this 10-point trailing stop will be anchored at 2924.80 when the regular session starts. If the trailing stop is hit, then the models indicate staying flat for the rest of the day. 

Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop). 

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:

(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.