When Everyone and Their Grandmother “Knows” What the Fed and the Market are Going to Do… When everything looks and feels so obvious and everyone knows what the market is going to do (“Fed indicates they are going to lower the interest rates soon, and the market rockets upwards”, of course), it might be (more…)
Markets Waiting for the Fed Tomorrow to Unwind It is the Fed’s announcement tomorrow that the market players are holding their breath for, even though what the Fed is going to do is almost a given. Any negative surprise could violently shake the markets, while reconfirmation of the market expectations could power it towards (more…)
Interest Rates, with a Sprinkling of China, to Drive this Week’s Market Sentiment With Chip stocks’ earnings on the radar, China is still one of the main factors weighing on the markets. The Fed’s stand on the interest rates are going to dominate all other headlines till at least Wednesday. With the markets hoping (more…)
Earnings and Economic Headlines to begin to Replace Geopolitical Concerns? No market-moving geopolitical news overnight and that might be allowing the markets to focus on economic and earnings related headlines. Chip stocks’ earnings concerns (read, Broadcom’s), China’s weak economic numbers, IEA’s oil demand outlook, and Gold’s rise…these are likely to consume investors’ sentiments today, (more…)
Choppiness Driven by Geopolitical Headlines The overnight futures have seen choppy trading driven by the headlines about the oil tanker fires in the Strait of Hormuz – sentiment oscillating between knee-jerk sell-off and knee-jerk bid-up. In which direction the sentiment stabilizes for the session is anybody’s guess, and potentially determined by the technicals of (more…)
This Morning’s “No Inflation, No Problems” (Good) News Bad for the Markets? The CPI release this morning points to no concerns about inflation or the health of the economy. While this is good for the common man, and the general well being of the economy, the equity market players could take this as (more…)
Would this Yo-Yo of a Market Turn Into a Projectile (in any single direction) Anytime Soon? The geopolitical headlines continue to play ping-pong with the Financial Markets sentiment, resulting in knee-jerk trading retail traders running like chicken with heads cut off from one direction to another. Despite many pundits’ forecasts of a collapse of (more…)
Quantitative Analysis to Cut Through the Increasingly Noisy Geopolitical Headlines? While the geopolitical headlines are becoming more and more volatile (and, shallow posturing) – with the traders’ sentiment turning into a yo-yo – objective, emotion-free quantitative lenses could help gain clarity into the market action. That is the basic philosophy that drives our approach (more…)
May Payroll Numbers Good or Bad? The disappointing NFP data released this morning may be interpreted as “Good for the markets” or “Bad for the economy” or in myriad ways depending upon one’s own objectives. While the perma-bears look at the implied economic slowdown, the perma-bulls look at the imminent Fed rate cuts. If one’s interest (more…)
Getting Tired of the Trade War Rhetoric? Investors seem to be wishing to forget the trade war rhetoric and focus on something less chaotic, but complacency always leads to spectacular blowups (in either direction). Major indices are right in the middle of precariously stubborn support and resistance levels, but the trade war related headlines could be (more…)
