Markets Searching for a Direction With the US-China trade talks getting tiringly protracted/stalled, and in the absence of major headlines, the markets are searching for a direction. Tomorrow’s Fed event may or may not provide some fodder.  Caution is advised against going short while the index is above 2840 and going long while under 2875. Below, (more…)

For the Markets, It’s China front-center-left-and-right…For Now While US-China trade talks have been at the center of the market moving headlines for the last week, it may as quickly be replaced by something else on a whim (FOMC meeting minutes this Wednesday). But, until then, expect China headlines to dominate the market sentiment “explanations”.  Caution (more…)

Markets Running Out of the Benefit-of-doubt Bandwidth? Most of the supporters have been affording this administration a lot of benefit of doubt for every “strategic move” unveiled through Twitter on trade policy. But, when people’s wallets are hurting, their patience and willingness to forgive the roller coaster rides that ensue twitter tantrums will run out (more…)

Bull-Bear Dog Fight to Continue With the bears out in the open and the bulls trying to defend their territory, expect a dog fight between the two sides until the market falls in one-side’s territory decisively. As of now, the market has gotten out of the bull’s territory but is not in the bear territory, (more…)

The Lurking Bear is Now Out In the Open The economic numbers today have brought the lurking bear finally out in the open. Yet, the path ahead for the bears is not necessarily smooth and our models are still “cautious” about the bearish bias until a daily close below 2895 is registered.  Extreme caution is (more…)

The Bulls are Down Exhausted and the Bears are Celebrating – for Now The damage to the market bulls from the trade war’s backfiring leaves the bears emerging out into the open. Yet, the path ahead for the markets is not necessarily clear in the directional bias – both sides have to tread cautiously and (more…)

  The Potential Trade War Fiasco Emboldening the Bears The tightly wound-up markets looks to be beginning to unravel today. Nevertheless, be on the high alert for swift and violent moves in both directions – unless you are a professional or veteran trader, better to sit on the sidelines for today.  Leave enough room to (more…)

  Markets Are Getting Wound Up Tightly With the geopolitical headlines filling the void of substantial economic news releases, the markets are getting wound up tight and could unravel shortly in either direction. Which direction this could happen depends on how the US-China trade talks continue to be spun around, and what happens to the (more…)

North Korea Adding to the US-trade Talks Fiasco Pressure! With the news that North Korea tested short range missiles, the pressure on the administration is growing to show that they can deliver – complaining that “the other party broke the deal” is not going to make up for the lack of strategic and mature/sophisticated “negotiations”.  (more…)

China Laughing at Our Policy Devolving Into “Deal Making” Reality TV Show With the White House trying to talk up this week’s US-China meeting (now that the markets have teetered yesterday), and with the revelation that we could not get China to really agree to anything so far, the markets are struggling to make sense (more…)