The Battle of 3855 (3854.90, to be precise), Attempt 3? Despite a second attempt yesterday at cracking the 20% down level for the S&P 500 Index from its all time high of 4818.62 – which comes in at 3854.90 – is yet to be breached. If the index survives another attempt to breach it, then (more…)
The Battle of 3855 (3854.90, to be precise) The 20% down level for the S&P 500 Index from its all time high of 4818.62 comes in at 3854.90, which is yet to be breached. After testing the session low at 3858.87 (3855 on the e-mini futures) last Thursday, 05/12, the index rebounded from that level. (more…)
Interim Low In at 3855 In our last trading plans published on Thu., 05/12, we wrote: “If/when the S&P hits that level at 3855, our models expect an initial reaction of rebound. Whether that rebound would stave off the bear market or will be short lived is anybody’s guess”. Marktes hit that 3855 session low (more…)
Consolidation If/Once S&P Hits the 20% Down Mark With the markets’ relentless selling, the S&P 500 has come just about 2% away from the technical definition of a bear market (20% down from the peak). If/when the S&P hits that level at 3855, our models expect an initial reaction of rebound. Whether that rebound would (more…)
“Inflation Peaked” Narrative to Push the Markets Up? This mornings hotter than expected Inflation report could be slowly making the chatter of “inflation peaked” a bit louder and stronger. Whether that can really prop up the markets and make yesterday’s intraday low of 3958.17 the (interim) bottom remains to be seen. Our models continue to (more…)
Yet Another Bull Trap Called! While the TV talking heads were all telling you to buy into the post-Fed rally, we published our trading plans last Thursday morning with CAUTION as the theme. The index gave up more than 200 points (around 5%) since then, and our models escaped the rout unscathed! We thank our (more…)
When Bad News is Celebrated ‘Cause It’s Not Worse Notwithstanding the FOMC’s initiation of aggressive tightening with yesterday’s 50 basis points hike in interest rates, markets seemed to have celebrated that the committee was not considering a 75 basis points hike. That steep rise in markets seem to be dissipating in the first hour of (more…)
Markets Trying to Second Guess the Fed’s Resolve? With the 10-year yields easing off of the highs reached yesterday, the stock indexes seem to be rallying – based on the morning’s price action. Considering that the Fed is just going to get started their aggressive tightening from tomorrow’s FOMC decision, this “rally” seems to be (more…)
Earnings Exuberance? After registering the session low of 4162.90 in yesterday’s session S&P 500 appears to be on an attempt to rebound, apparently powered by the earnings from Meta/FaceBook and on anticipation of earnings from Amazon and Apple. How long this may last is anybody’s question. Our positional models will avoid going long while the index (more…)
Another Bull Trap Goes on the Record! In the morning of Thu, 04/21, when the markets were upbeat and most analysts were pumping the markets with the “inflation is peaking” narrative, we wrote this in our trading plans: “the levels our positional trading models indicated (4495-4517) are likely coming into play today and in the (more…)
