Thinning Liquidity and Large Options Positions With the holidays upon us and the liquidity thinning, and with large call positions expiring tomorrow, expect the tight range to get broadened with wild spikes in either direction today and mainly tomorrow. As we wrote yesterday, “The unabated bull run is likely going to slow down a bit, (more…)

This Roller Coaster for both Bulls and Bears The unabated bull run is likely going to slow down a bit, albeit not getting negated any time soon. Unless some major unexpected headlines hit the markets, expect choppy range trading into the year end, with occasional sudden spikes in either direction. Structurally, we are still in (more…)

This Bull Isn’t Going Away Anytime Soon? There is no change in the story of this bull market! Our Friday morning trading plan wrote: “If you went short on that lack of detail and against what our models have been consistently indicating, you may be spooked by the continued apparent strength of the bulls”. That (more…)

Markets Unraveling to Inflict Maximum Pain Our Friday morning trading plan wrote: “If you went short on that lack of detail and against what our models have been consistently indicating, you may be spooked by the continued apparent strength of the bulls”. That spooky story is extending into this week, with strong gains in overnight (more…)

Tight Spiky Range Turned Spooky? Overnight futures have continued accumulating gains on top of yesterday’s spike up on Trump’s pumping up of the “Phase-1” (aka, diluted) China trade deal that was light on detail. If you went short on that lack of detail and against what our models have been consistently indicating, you may be (more…)

Tight Range, Spiky Today’s weekly jobless claims number may raise some concerned eyebrows but we doubt if it would cause the markets to break out of the tight range they have been stuck in for this week. Until something significant moves the markets out of the range, no directional moves are likely. Care should be (more…)

Today’s FOMC Rate Decision Today’s rate decision announcement from the Fed is going to be just a yawn – nobody is anticipating any fireworks from it. It’s the Goldilocks scenario – except for the overnight lending markets and their cash crunch. Unless there are any major unexpected revelations, expect today’s market to repeat yesterday’s choppy, (more…)

Choppy, Range-bound With the impeachment drama on the hill, Fed on the offing, and the China trade war deadline looming…there is a lot of headline risks ahead for the markets. Given that none of these could be actually leading to any clear outcomes, expect choppy trading ahead within the broad range our models have been (more…)

Trump the Wild Card This Week? Last Friday morning we wrote: “Last two days of price action has confirmed the lifting-off of the pressure on bulls, albeit not confirming any strength for them”. While the Non-Farm Payrolls catapulted the markets to new highs, our models continue to be in an indeterminate state where neither the (more…)