How Long Can this Ride Last? That’s Not the Right Question! As we wrote yesterday morning’s outlook, trying to justify what our “gut” “feeling” says what “should or should not be” happening in the markets is NOT what one should do to invest or trade in the markets. Yet, most individual investors/traders are known to (more…)
Does Something Not Seem Right with this Bull? When markets are making new highs on old news, and when the Fed is dovish when the financial markets are at historic highs and the unemployment at historic lows – if you “feel” something does not add up, you are not being irrational but you may not (more…)
It’s All About the Monetary Policy Today! The S&P 500 futures are up with the release of Powell’s prepared testimony, and seem to be celebrating a potential confirmation that the fed would be cutting the rates in its July meeting – which was being already factored in with a 100% probability in the derivatives markets! (more…)
Despite Powell, No Major Theme Moving the Markets The absence of the constant barrage of hype and market propping antics by various parties with vested interests – both at the geopolitical level and on the domestic monetary policy level – seems to prevail into today’s session, despite Powell’s scheduled testimony today. Call it hype-fatigue? Market (more…)
When Hype Gets Exhausting, Markets Turn to Basics…Likely this Week In the apparent absence of the constant barrage of hype and market propping antics by various parties with vested interests – both at the geopolitical level and on the domestic monetary policy level – markets seem to be pondering about the economic basics of the (more…)
Jobs Numbers, Options Expiration, Thin Liquidity Today’s Jobs number is not supportive of imminent interest rate cuts. It being Friday, options expiration levels would also pull the market in various ways. And, most professionals may be taking a long weekend, leading to thin liquidity. Together, these factors could be making for a choppy market today. (more…)
Beware of Sharks in Shallow Waters (low liquidity) Due to the shortened trading hours for the July 4th holiday, expect thin trading in the markets. When liquidity is low, typically retail traders get whip-sawed with wild, sudden moves OR sustained moves in a direction opposite to the majority retail positioning (market makers, anyone?). Unless you (more…)
The Market Fireworks – Enjoy While It Lasts Barring any major, unexpected economic or geopolitical headlines, the markets are likely going to be in a holding pattern until (or, at most?) this celebratory, abbreviated week concludes. As we wrote last Thursday, “With the interest rate cut hopes drying up, a trade war resolution is the (more…)
When Sojourning Leads to Celebrating As If Reached the Destination…STOP and THINK! Almost every major financial news media predicted the outcome of a thin-on-details “truce” on further tariffs than any substantive progress towards an agreement or a resolution to the trade war. And, yet, the overnight futures action is exuberant and indicating significant gap up (more…)
This Weekend’s G-20 Summit the Destination or a Soujorn for the Long, Winding Trade War? We all have seen this movie before – we are told, “we are just about to announce the trade agreement” only to realize that there was really nothing of substance to see – for months! Will this weekend’s G-20 summit (more…)
