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Despite the seeming weakness at the opening bell, the bears could not push S&P 500 Index #SP500 #SPX #SPY #ES even into the 2715-2705 consolidation band today so far (11:45am EDT), unlike the last two days. At the same time, the bulls have been able to push the index above yesterday’s highs during the overnight futures session.
Also, to be noted: As mentioned in last night’s forecast, the short term “Models are currently long from 2720, with a take-profit target at 2733 and a stop-loss at 2720“. Those who are trading S&P 500 Index futures (e-mini ES) would have seen the profit target hit for a decent profit, and should now be flat.
Again, the 2715-2705 is proving to be a strong support band for the bulls for the third day in a row since originally forecast on the 22nd night. If the index closes below this band today, then the bears will gain initial strength, but until then the mild bullish bias is still intact. Models indicate slight gain in the bullishness of the market today, so caution should be exercised if you want to sell short.
As of now (1145am EDT, SPX at 2724.00), the session’s low registered at 2717.59 and high at 2727.36. Our models point to the possibility of this range to be taken out and new high and/or new low to be tested by the end of the session. The indications are that the 2720 level could be the key pivot for long or short trades for the rest of the session.
While the market is choppy with no upperhand to either the bulls or the bears today so far, there is no bearish bias until at least a break of 2710 (for intraday, aggressive traders) or 2680 (for short term to medium term investors). Depending on your trading style and risk appetite, determine the levels models indicate to place your trades today.
Exercise caution when getting into positions within tight ranges, especially considering that this is a Friday and there is high risk of geopolitical newsflow tilting the market one way or another over the weekend, which could make the Monday market to significantly gap-up or gap-down at the opening.
Good luck and safe trading!