Results of Published Model Entries and Exits for Monday 05/13

Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month:

NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the  S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.

These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this article for additional notes and disclaimers. 

Trading Plans/Forecast Published Monday Morning – Medium-Frequency Models

“For today, Monday 05/13, our medium-frequency models are sporting a cautiously bearish bias. Models indicate going short on a break below 2815 with a 10-point trailing stop and a 2805 take-profit target, and going long on a break above 2832 with a 10-point trailing stop.” 

 Trading Plan Results/Outcome

Mon 05/13: The medium-frequency models booked +3.66 index points in net gains on five short trades

SPX opened at 2840.19 and quickly started falling down, and crossed below the 2815 level around 10:05am ET, triggering a short with 10-point trailing stop and 2805 profit target. The index reached an interim low of 2812.71 within the next couple of minutes, taking the trailing stop to 2822.71, which was hit around 10:35am closing the short with a loss of 7.71 index points. 

The index crossed below the 2815 level again around 11:15am, triggering another short position. The short rode the index down all the way to the profit target of 2805, reached around 1pm. The models closed the short with a profit of 10 index points. 

The 2815 level was broken below a third time around 2:10pm, opening another short position. The index reached an interim low of 2807.49 around 2:20pm, lowering the trailing stop to 2817.49. The stop was hit in the following five minutes, closing the short with a loss of 2.49 index points. 
 
The 2815 was broken below for the fourth time around 2:45pm, opening another short. The index reached an interim low of 2811.14 before rising up to the trigger level of 2821.14 and closing the short with a loss of 6.14 index points. 

The index broke below the 2815 the fifth time around 3:20pm, triggering the fifth short position. The short hit the profit target of 2805 within the following fifteen minutes, closing with a gain of 10 index points. The index stayed flat for the rest of the session. 

Thus, the models closed today’s wild session with a net gain of  3.66 index points on five short trades (-7.71 + 10.0 -2.49 – 6.14 + 10).

 Past results this month – medium frequency models (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):

 Trading Plans/Forecast Published Monday Morning – Aggressive Intraday Models

“For today, Monday 05/13, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 2823 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 2818 with an 8-point trailing stop and a take-profit target of 2805.”

Trading Plan Results/Outcome:

Mon 05/13: The aggressive intraday models booked +12.15 index points in net gains on two long trades and four short trades

SPX opened at 2840.19 and quickly started falling down, and crossed below the 2818 level around 10:00am ET, triggering a short with an 8-point trailing stop and 2805 profit target. The index reached an interim low of 2812.71 within the next couple of minutes, taking the trailing stop to 2820.71, which was hit around 10:20am, closing the short with a loss of 2.71 index points. 

The index crossed above the 2823 level around 10:40am, triggering a long position with a 8-point trailing stop. The short reached an interim high of 2826.89 within the following few minutes, lifting the trailing stop trigger to 2818.89. The index broke below 2718 around 11am, triggering the second short position and simultaneously closing the long with a loss of 5 index points.  

The short narrowly survived the stop between 11:50pm and noon, to follow the index towards the session low of 2801.43 reached around 1:20pm. On the way, it hit the profit target at 2805 and closed the position with a gain of 13 index points.  
 
The index then rose and broke below the 2818 level again around 2:30pm, opening another short. The index reached an interim low of 2811.14 before rising up to the 8-point trailing stop trigger level of 2819.14 and closing the short with a loss of 1.14 index points. 

The index broke above the 2823 again around 2:55pm, triggering the second long position with an 8-point trailing stop. The index reached an interim high of 2823.83 around 3pm, raising the stop trigger to 2815.83. When the index broke below the 2818 for the third time around 3:15pm, the long was closed with a loss of 5 index points, and a short was opened simultaneously.  

The short then rode the index all the way down to the profit target of 2805 around 3:40pm, where it closed with a gain of 13 index points. The models stayed flat for the rest of the session.
 
Thus, the aggressive intraday models closed today’s volatile session with a net gain of  12.15 index points on a total of six trades – two long and four short (-2.71 -5.00 +13.00 -1.14 -5.00 + 13.00).

Past results this month – aggressive intraday models (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):

 

NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).

 

 

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:

 

 

(i) This and other articles in the blog contain personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.

(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone