Results of Published Model Trades for MON 08/19
Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month.
(please click here to view the Summary of the Market Action)
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: Open long from Thursday, 08/15 (with entry point at 2835) survived the day’s session, and is being carried into Tuesday’s session (or, overnight session if you are trading the index futures) with an 11-point trailing stop trigger at 2920.00.
Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to +14.94 index points in gains on two longs.
THE DETAILS:
NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.
The trades given below are not reflective of or indicative of any specific outcomes for any specific individual. Your exact results would vary widely, depending on the time frame you use – tick chart, 1-min chart, 5-min chart, 15-min chart etc, as well as the quality of the execution of your broker, the stop levels you use based on your risk tolerance and your trading style.
These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this article for additional notes and disclaimers..
Medium-Frequency Models – Trading Plan Outcomes/Results:
The models carried into the Monday session an open long from Thursday (opened at 2835). The models updated the original 9-point trailing stop to 11-point trailing stop in this morning’s trading plans, for which some of our readers reached out to express a sense of consternation as it seemed almost like a “crystal ball” (in one reader’s words) – the SPX gapped up on the open and reached an interim high of 2925.28 around 9:40am and then reached an interim low of 2914.92 around 10:15am, with the long position surviving the 11-point trailing stop’s trigger at 2914.28 by mere 0.64 points!
We take coming this close as a lucky coincidence and want to remind our readers that our models could as narrowly miss a profitable trade and ask to keep the big picture of long term, consistent results in perspective at all the times.
Having survived the trailing stop so narrowly, the long rode to the session high of 2931.00 reached at 1:20pm, lifting the trailing stop trigger to 2920.00. Since the morning trading plan referred to going short on a break below 2930 “once closed out”, the models did NOT close out the long and did NOT take a short when the break below 2930 occurred right after the session high.
The long survived into the session close and is being carried into Tuesday’s session (or, overnight session if you are trading the index futures) with the trailing stop trigger at 2920.00.
Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, these models do NOT open any new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.
Aggressive Intraday Models – Trading Plan Outcomes/Results:
The index broke above the 2915 level within the first couple of minutes, triggering a long with a 7-point trailing stop. The long reached an interim high of 2925.28 around 9:40am, lifting the trailing stop to 2918.28. This stop was hit around 10:10am, closing the long with a gain of 3.28 index points.
The index broke above the 2915 level around 10:15am, triggering a long(#2) with a 7-point trailing stop. The long rode to the session high of 2931.00 reached around 1:20pm, lifting the trailing stop to 2924.00. The long survived this stop level till the end of the intraday lifetime 3:55pm, at which time it was closed out at 2926.66 for a gain of 11.66 index points.
Thus, our aggressive intraday models’ trading plans for the day lead to a gross gain of 14.94 (+3.28 +11.66) index points on two long trades.
Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. Due to the intraday nature of these aggressive models, they indicate closing any open trades at 3:55pm and remaining flat into the session close. No opening of new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.
NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.