Results of Published Model Entries and Exits for Thursday 04/04

 Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month:

NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the  S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.

These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this article for additional notes and disclaimers.

Trading Plans/Forecast Published Thursday Morning – Medium-term Models

“For today, Thursday 04/04, our medium-term models indicate trading off of a broadened range to account for any potential spike in volatility surrounding the China trade talks. Would go long on a break above 2886 with a 10-point trailing stop and 12-point profit target, and go short on a break below 2857 with a 10-point trailing stop and a 15-point profit target.”

Trading Plan Results/Outcome

Thu 04/04:  No trade

The S&P 500 Index did not break out of the above mentioned levels during today’s session.  Hence, no trades were triggered for the day. 

Past results this month – medium term (high frequency) models (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):

Trading Plans/Forecast Published Thursday Morning – Aggressive Intraday Models

“For today, Thursday 04/04, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 2886 or 2877 with an 8-point trailing stop. Models also indicate going short on a break below 2863 with an 8-point trailing stop.“

Trading Plan Results/Outcome:

Thu 04/04:  Booked a net -7.28 index points in losses on three long positions.

The index broke above 2877 level at 9:35am ET, triggering a long position with an 8-point trailing stop. The long rode to the session high of 2881.28 at 10:00am, lifting the stop trigger to 2873.28. The stop trigger was hit around 10:30am, closing the position with a loss of 3.72 index points.

The index again broke above 2877 level at 10:50am, triggering a long position with an 8-point trailing stop. The index reached an interim high of 2878.85 within the next few minutes, taking the stop trigger down to 2870.85. The stop trigger was hit around 11:20am, closing the position with a loss of 6.15 index points.

The  index again broke above the 2877 level at 2:50pm and closed the position at 2879.59 at 3:55 pm as per the “intraday” mandate, registering a gain of 2.59 index points.

Thus, the models booked a net loss of 7.28 (-3.72 -6.15 +2.59) index points on two longs and two short positions in the session. 

Past results this month – aggressive intraday models (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):

NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:

(i) This and other articles in the blog contain personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.

(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone