Results of Published Model Entries and Exits for Wed 01/09

After breaking the winning streak of seven consecutive profitable days yesterday (Tue 01/08), our medium-term models realized a second day of losses today (Wed, 01/09) with a net loss of 12.20 index points. Our aggressive intraday models continued broke their winning streak of nine consecutive profitable trading days today by booking a net loss of 1.17 index points.

All this, simply by following mechanical entries and exits using the pre-defined levels as given in our trading plan published before the markets opened daily. Anyone can publicly verify and double check these entry and exit levels from the forecast articles and from the index price levels for the day from any trading website (Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Bloomberg…pick your favorite).

Below, you will find the detailed tracking of our models’ trading plans for today, as well as the results for the last month:

Performance Results of the Trading Plans Published for WED, 01/09:

 

Medium-term Models


Trading Plan/Forecast Published In the Morning: “For today, Wednesday 01/09, our medium-term models indicate trading off of the broad 2590-2547 band – going long on a cross above 2590 and going short on a cross below 2547 – with a 10-point trailing stop on both trades” (click here to read the full forecast and/or verify this claim).

Trading Plan Results/Outcome:

Wed 01/09: Booked -12.20 index points in losses on two longs

The index broke above the 2590 level around 11:55am, triggering a long position with a 10-point trailing stop. The index reached an interim high of 2595.32 by 2:10pm, thus lifting the trailing stop to 2585.32, which was hit around 2:20pm, closing the long with a loss of 4.68 index points.

The index broke above the 2590 level again around 2:50pm, triggering another long position with 10-point trailing stop. The index reached an interim high of 2592.48 by 3:20pm, lifting the trailing stop to 2582.48, which was hit by 3:50pm closing the long with a loss of 7.52 index points.

The models then stayed flat for the rest of the session.

Thus, the medium term models booked a net of -12.20 index points in losses (long, -4.68; long, -7.52).

Past results this month:
Our medium-term models started the month of December with indeterminate state and stayed out of the markets throughout the first half of the month.

Mon 12/17: Booked +20 index points in profit on a short
Tue 12/18: Booked +9.25 index points in profit on a short

Wed 12/19: Booked +26 index points in profit on a short
Thu 12/20: Booked +26.5 index points in profit on two shorts
Fri 12/21: No trades
Mon 12/24: No trades

Wed 12/26: Booked +14.75 index points in profit on a short
Thu 12/27: Long entered at 2455, carried to Friday
Fri 12/28: Booked +28.75 index points in profit on a long
Mon 12/31: Booked +56 index points in profits on two shorts and two longs.
Wed 01/02: Booked +13.75 index points in profits on three longs and two shorts.
Thu 01/03: Booked +47.53 index points in profits on three shorts and two longs
Fri 01/04: Booked +9.70 index points in profits on one long
Mon 01/07: Booked +18.00 index points in profits on one long

Tue 01/08: Booked -5.18 index points in losses on one long

Aggressive, Intraday Models

Trading Plan/Forecast Published In the Morning: “For today, Wednesday 01/09, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 2578 or 2588 or 2560, and going short on a break below 2570 or 2555 during regular session hours (9:30am-4:00pm), with an 8-point trailing stop” (click here to read the full forecast and/or verify this claim).

Trading Plan Results/Outcome:
Wed 01/09: Booked -1.17 index points in losses on three long trades
Around 10:00am, the index crossed above 2588 triggering a long position with an 8-point trailing stop. The index then reached an interim high of 2589.03, lifting the trailing stop trigger to 2581.03, which was hit by 10:30am closing the long with a loss of 6.97 index points.

The index broke above 2578 around 11:01am, triggering a long position with an 8-point trailing stop. The position rode to the session high of 2595.32 by 2:10pm, lifting the stop trigger to 2587.32. The stop was hit around 2:20pm, closing the long with a profit of 9.32 index points.

The index broke above 2588 for another time around 2:45pm, triggering another long position with an 8-point trailing stop. The position rode the index to an interim high of 2592.48, lifting the trailing stop to 2584.48 which was hit around 3:40pm closing the long with a loss of 3.52 index points. The models then stayed flat for the rest of the session.

Thus, the aggressive intraday models booked a net loss o

f 1.17 index points today (long, -6.97; long, +9.32; long, -3.52).

Past results this month: Our aggressive intraday models mostly stayed out of the market in early December.
Mon 12/10: Booked +31.25 points in profit on two shorts
Tue 12/11: Booked +0.50 points in profit on a long
Wed 12/12: No trades

Thu 12/13: Booked -2.25 points in loss on a short
Fri 12/14: Booked +14.25 points in profit on a short

Mon 12/17: Booked +51.75 points in profit on a short

Tue 12/18: Booked +15.25 points in profit on three shorts
Wed 12/19: Booked +41.00 points in profit on two shorts
Thu 12/20: Booked +26.5 points in profit on two shorts
Fri 12/21: Booked -2.00 points in loss on two shorts
Mon 12/24: Booked +50 points in profit on two shorts
Wed 12/26: Booked +9.25 points in profit on a long
Thu 12/27: Booked +62.00 points in profit on three short trades and one long trade
Fri 12/28: Booked +10 points on profit one short and two longs
Mon 12/31: Booked +56 points in profits on two shorts and two longs.
Wed 01/02: Booked +14.75 points in profits on two longs and three shorts.

Thu 01/03: Booked +33.50 points in profits on a total of seven trades (five shorts and two longs).
Fri 01/04: Booked +11.70 index points in profits on one long
Mon 01/07: Booked +23.00 index points in profits on one long
Tue 01/08: Booked +3.54 index points in profits on one short and two longs
NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:

(i) This and other articles in the blog contain personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.