Results of Published Model Entries and Exits for Wednesday 05/22

Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month:

NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the  S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.

These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this article for additional notes and disclaimers.

 Trading Plans/Forecast Published Wednesday Morning – Medium-Frequency Models

“For today, Wednesday 05/22, our medium-frequency models indicate carrying yesterday’s long position until it gets stopped out. They indicate going short on a break below 2854, with a 10-point trailing stop and a take-profit target of 2838, and going long on a break above 2866 with a 10-point trailing stop and a take-profit target of 2885.”

Trading Plan Results/Outcome

Wed 05/22: The medium-frequency models booked a net -16.48 index points in losses on two shorts. 

The index opened at 2856.06, triggering the trailing stop on the long carried from yesterday and closing it with a gain of 0.06 index points. 

After narrowly brushing the 2854 level in the first couple of minutes, the index broke below 2854 at 9:42am ET (on a 1-minute bar; depending on one’s chosen time frame, one may or may not have taken this signal), triggering a short with 10-point trailing stop. 
 
The short reached an interim low of 2853.37, moving the stop trigger to 2863.37, around 9:50am. The stop was triggered at 10:15am, closing the short with a loss of 9.37 index points (note that the session high registered at this time was 2865.47 – just 0.53 points away from our 2866 level to trigger a long).
 
The index crossed below the 2854 level around 11:00am, triggering a short for the second time. The short narrowly survived the 10-point trailing stop on the spike up around 11:30am and then rode all the way to the session low of 2851.11 around 1:10pm, taking the stop trigger to 2861.11. The stop was triggered around 2:30pm, closing the short with a loss of 7.11 index points. The models stayed flat for the rest of the session. 
 
Thus, the medium-frequency models registered a net loss of 16.48 index points (-9.37 -7.11).  


Past results this month – medium frequency models (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):

Trading Plans/Forecast Published Tuesday Morning – Aggressive Intraday Models

“For today, Wednesday 05/22, our aggressive intraday models indicate going short on a break below 2860 or 2853 or 2848 – each with an 8-point trailing stop and a take-profit target of 2838.

Models also indicate going long on a break above 2852 or 2858 or 2866 – each with an 8-point trailing stop and  a take-profit target of 2875.“

Trading Plan Results/Outcome:

Tue 05/21: The aggressive intraday models booked a net of +11.34 index points in gains on three longs and three shorts. 
 
The index broke above the 2858 level around 9:55am ET, triggering a long (#1) with an 8-point trailing stop. This long was closed around 10:20am when the index broke below the 2860 level, with a gain of 2.00 index points, and simultaneously a short (#1) was opened. 

The short was closed around 10:50am – with a gain of 2.00 index points – when the index broke above the 2858 level and the models opened a long (#2) with an 8-point trailing stop. After reaching an interim low of 2852.64 around 11:05am, the index moved up to an interim high of 2862.31 around 11:30am, taking the stop trigger to 2854.31. The long was closed with a gain of 2.00 index points when the index broke below 2860, simultaneously opening a short (#2) with an 8-point trailing stop.

The short then rode all the way to the session low of 2851.11 around 1:10pm, taking the stop trigger to 2859.11. On the subsequent rise, the index broke above the 2858 level around 1:55pm and the models closed the short with a gain of 2.00 index points and opened a long (#3) with an 8-point trailing stop.

After reaching an interim high of 2863.18 around 2:45pm, the index broke below the 2860 level around 3:15pm, closing the long with a gain of 2.00 index points and simultaneously opening a short (#3).

The short was closed on the 3:55pm bar – per the “intraday” protocol mandate – at 2858.66, with a gain of 1.34 index points.

Thus, the aggressive intraday models booked a net gain of 11.34 index points (+2.00 +2.00 +2.00 +2.00 +2.00 +1.34) for the day.


Past results this month – aggressive intraday models (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):

 

 

NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).

 

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:

 

(i) This and other articles in the blog contain personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.

(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone