Traders' A.I.

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Results of Published Model Trades for WED 08/07     

Both of our models lead to excessively high number of trades today, indicating a prevalence of uncertainty in the direction of the market and a lack of dominance on the part of either the bulls or the bears.  Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month. 

(please click here to view the Outlook and Trading Plans published in the morning, that these results refer to)

(please click here to view the Summary of the Market Action on Wednesday, 08/07)

THE GIST:

Medium-Frequency Models: Lead to +54.36 index points in gains on six longs and four shorts.

Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to +51.56 index points in gains on twelve longs and eleven shorts.

THE DETAILS:

NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the  S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to. 

These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this article for additional notes and disclaimers..   

Medium-Frequency Models – Trading Plan Outcomes/Results:

The index broke below the 2852 level within the first couple of minutes, triggering a short position with a 9-point trailing stop. The short narrowly survived the trailing stop and rode down to the session low of 2825.71 reached around 9:45am, moving the trailing stop to 2934.71. This stop was hit around 9:55am, closing the position with a gain of 17.29 index points.

At around the same time, the index broke above the 2835 level, triggering a long with a 7-point trailing stop. The long narrowly survived the trailing stop and was closed when the index broke below 2852 around 10:20am, leading to a gain of 17.00 index points.

At the same time, the models opened a short(#2) with a 9-point trailing stop on the break below 2852. The short rode to an interim low of 2846.20 around 10:25am, moving the trailing stop to 2855.20. This trigger was hit around 10:30am, closing the short with a loss of 3.20 index points.   

The index broke above the 2858 level around 10:35am, opening a long(#2) with a 7-point trailing stop. The long reached an interim high of 2868.5 around 10:55am, moving the trailing stop to 2861.5. This stop was hit around 11:05am, closing the long with a gain of 3.5 index points. 

Within a couple of minutes, the index again broke above 2858, triggering a long(#3) with a 7-point trailing stop. The long rode to an interim high of 2865.80 around 11:10am, lifting the trailing stop to 2858.80. This stop was hit around 11:25am, closing the position with a gain of 0.80 index points.

The index broke above 2858 around 11:35am, triggering a long(#4) with a 7-point trailing stop. The long reached an interim high of 2859.60 within the next couple of minutes, lifting the trailing stop to 2852.60, which was hit within the next few minutes closing the long with a loss of 5.40 index points.

The index broke below the 2852 level around 11:45am, triggering a short(#3) with a 9-point trailing stop. The short narrowly survived the trailing stop to reach an interim low of 2846.80 around 12:25pm, moving the trailing stop trigger to 2855.80, which was hit within the next few minutes closing the short with a loss of 3.80 index points.

The index broke above the 2858 level again around 12:45pm, triggering a long(#5) with a 7-point trailing stop. The index rose above the 2876 level and then broke below it around 1:55pm, closing the long with a gain of 18.00 index points and opening a short(#4) with a 9-point trailing stop.

The short reached an interim low of 2867.80 around 2:25pm, moving the trailing stop trigger to 2876.80. This stop was hit around 2:45pm, closing the short with a loss of 0.80 index points.

The index broke above the 2885 level around 3:20pm, triggering a long(#6) with a 7-point trailing stop. The long reached the session high of 2992.17 around 3:40pm, lifting the trailing stop to 2985.17. This stop was hit around 3:50pm, closing the long with a gain of 0.17 index points. 

Thus, our medium frequency models’ trades lead to a gain of 54.36 index points (+17.29 +17.00 -3.20 +3.50 +0.80 +5.40 -3.80 +18.00 -0.80 +0.17) on a total of ten trades! These excessively high number of trades are potentially indicative of a prevalence of uncertainty in the direction of the market, and of a lack of dominance on the part of either the bulls or the bears.

Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, these models do NOT open any new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.

Aggressive Intraday Models – Trading Plan Outcomes/Results:

The index broke below the 2952 level within the first couple of minutes of the session, triggering a short with a 7-point trailing stop. The short rode down to an interim low of 2940.40, lowering the trailing stop trigger to 2947.40. This stop was hit around 9:40am, closing the position with a gain of 4.60 index points.

Within a couple of minutes, the index broke below the 2946 level (Edit: corrected from 2952, thanks to an astute reader! A big ‘Thank You’ to reader @dshute for helping us catch and correct this error), triggering a short(#2) with a 7-point trailing stop. The short rode to the session low of 2825.71 at 9:46am, taking the trailing stop trigger to 2832.71. This stop was hit around 9:50am, closing the short with a gain of 13.29 (Edit: corrected from 19.29) index points.

The index broke above the 2835 level, triggering a long with a 7-point trailing stop. The long was closed when the index rose above and then broke below 2846, leading to a gain of 11.00 index points, and opening of a short(#3).   

The index broke above the 2850 level, closing the short with a loss of 4.00 index points and opening a long(#2) with a 7-point trailing stop.

The index broke below the 2852 level within the next minute, closing the long with a gain of 2.00 index points and opening a short(#4).

The index broke above the 2850 level around 10:15am, closing the short with a gain of 2.00 index points and opening a long(#3). 

The index broke below the 2852 level around 10:20am, closing the long with a gain of 2.00 index points and opening a short(#5).

The index broke above the 2850 level in the next minute, closing the short with a gain of 2.00 index points and opening a long(#4).

The index rose above 2852 and then broke below it around 10:30am, closing the long with a gain of 2.00 index points and opening a short(#6).

The index, in the next minute, broke below and then above the 2850 level, closing the short with a gain of 2.00 index points and opening a long(#5).

The long rode to an interim high of 2868.60 and then broke below the long-exit level of 2863 around 11:00am, leading to a gain of 18.60 index points.

The index broke above the 2858 level around 11:05am, opening a long(#6) with a 7-point trailing stop. The long reached above and then broke below the long-exit level of 2863 around 11:15am, leading to a gain of 5.00 index points.

The index broke above the 2858 level around 11:25am, triggering a long(#7) with a 7-point trailing stop. The long was closed when the index broke below the 2852 level around 11:45am, leading to a loss of 6.00 index points.

At the same time, the models opened a short(#7) at 2852, with a 7-point trailing stop. This was closed with a loss of 6.00 index points when the index broke above the 2858 level around 11:55am.

At the same time, the models opened a long(#8) at 2858, with a 7-point trailing stop. This was closed when the index broke below the 2852 level around 12:05pm, leading to a loss of 6.00 index points and the opening of a short(#8) with a 7-point trailing stop. 

The index broke above the 2850 level around 12:15pm, closing the short with a gain of 2.00 index points, and opening a long(#9).

Within a couple of minutes, the long was closed with a gain of 2.00 index points when the index broke below the 2852 level leading to the opening of a short(#9).

The models closed the short with a gain of 2.00 index points around 12:30pm when the index broke above the 2850 level leading to the opening of a long(#10).

The long was closed around 1:00pm when the index broke below the long-exit level of 2863, leading to a gain of 13.00 index points.

Models opened a short(#10) around 1:55pm when the index broke below the 2876 level. The short narrowly survived the 7-point trailing stop to reach an interim low of 2868.00 around 2:25pm, moving the trailing trigger to 2875.00. This was hit around 2:30pm, closing the short with a gain of 1.00 index points.

The index – within a couple of minutes – broke below the 2876 level again, triggering a short(#11) with a 7-point trailing stop. The short reached an interim low of 2873.60, moving the trialing stop trigger to 2880.60. This stop was hit around 2:45pm, closing the short with a loss of 4.60 index points.

The index broke above the 2885 level around 3:00pm, triggering a long(#11) with a 7-point trailing stop. The index reached an interim high of 2885.50 within the next minute, lifting the trailing stop to 2878.50 which was hit in the next couple of minutes closing the position with a loss of 6.50 index points.

The index broke above the 2885 level again around 3:20pm, triggering a long(#12) with a 7-point trailing stop. The long reached the session high of 2992.17 around 3:40pm, lifting the trailing stop to 2985.17. This stop was hit around 3:50pm, closing the long with a gain of 0.17 index points.  

Thus, the aggressive intraday models’ trades lead to a gain of +51.56 (+4.60 +13.29 +11.00 -4.00 +2.00 +2.00 +2.00 +2.00 +2.00 +2.00 +18.60 +5.00 -6.00 -6.00 -6.00 +2.00 +2.00 +2.00 +13.00 +1.00 -4.60 -6.50 +0.17) index points on a total of 23 trades! These excessively high number of trades are potentially indicative of a prevalence of uncertainty in the direction of the market, and of a lack of dominance on the part of either the bulls or the bears.

 

Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. Due to the intraday nature of these aggressive models, they indicate closing any open trades at 3:55pm and remaining flat into the session close. No opening of new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY: