Consolidation Ahead? Day 5
On the fourth day since we first published “the surge from post-FOMC last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place”, the index has clearly confirmed that its bullish momentum has dissipated, and our positional models have turned bearish with a short position opened.
Unless the index closes above 4100 today, our models indicate continued downward drift until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. If the index closes above 4100 today, then we expect the choppy consolidation to continue into the next week.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flat for now. Models indicate going short on a daily close below 4100, with a take-profit on a cross above 4065, and a trailing stop of 33 points. Models also indicate going long on a daily close above 4180 with a trailing stop of 35 points.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops – if any – being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for FRI. 02/09:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4113, 4103, 4083, or 4071 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4090, 4080, or 4068 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4109 or 4098, and short exit on a break above 4093 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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