Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare?
After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning’s Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an “irrational exuberance”, and the futures’ reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models went long on 11/29/22 at 3950.89, with a 40-point trailing stop. The long rode the post-FOMC spike up and stayed long for another session, finally hitting the trailing stop yesterday with an exit at 4060.51 – for a gain of 109.62 index points!
For today’s session, models indicate going long on a break above 4040, with a 35-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4008, with a 36-point trailing stop. Models also indicate instituting a break-even exit once a trade is in profit by 12 points.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for FRI. 12/02:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4040, 4022, or 4007 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4018 or 4000 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 4054, and short exits on a break above 3991. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.
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