Is that Grinch or Santa in Disguise?
The markets’ reaction to the much anticipated confirmation from the Fed of the tapering and the rate hikes ahead seems to have taken many retail traders by surprise – didn’t almsot everyone kept saying that the markets “should” go down if that happens?!
While there can be a lot of analysis-paralysis on this topic (just like on any other topic), all that we can say is this: when everyone and their barbor knows what is going to happen on the markets, the trade is already dead! If you were short going into or after the Fed yesterday, this could explain why it might not have worked.
What next? Of course, nobody knows! The thing that the markets will reveal by next Mon/Tue is whether we are going to have Santa or the Grinch on the markets for this Christmas.
Positional Trading Models: Our Positional Trading Models’ are flat and in an indeterminate state – likely will be so till at least Monday, 12/20. No positional trading plans for today.
Intraday/Aggressive Models indicate the trading plans below for today:
Trading Plans for THU 12/16:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4735 with a 7-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4675 with an 8-point trailing stop (yes, that is a wide trading range for the day).
Models indicate long exits on a break below 4740, and short exits on a break above 4655 or 4640. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36 am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the open of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing conv ention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 1-minute closing or a higher time frame – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.
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