Our Models Sitting Out Today’s FOMC Action
With the FOMC rate decision on tap later today, our models are indicating sitting out the post-FOMC action as they see all noise and no signal. This is especially prudent given the static nature of our trading plans published here.
After flashing indications for a potential peak in the upside momentum, our models are continuing the downside bias for now. Only a surprise move from the Fed (in either direction) could change this to the upside (unlikely, but we never know). As we stated last week, “(Next week’s) FOMC decision could spark some violent spikes in both directions, with a bias towards the downside”.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate sitting out today’s FOMC event – no trading plans until further notice otherwise.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate sitting out today’s FOMC event – no trading plans for today.
Trading Plans for WED 07/27:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate sitting out today’s FOMC event – no trading plans for today.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.
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