The Market Bull Stood Its Ground Even With the Facebook Fiasco! Any Fight Still Left for Friday?

Our S&P 500 Index forecast for Thursday (07/26/18) – published Wednesday night – stated: “For Thursday, 07/26, if the index closes above 2835, it would indicate accelerating bullishness in the market and the index would likely be testing the 2872 high in the near future.” (click here to read/verify this claim). Thursday, the index closed at 2837.44 – just about 2.5 points above the 2835 level mentioned – and confirms the ongiong strength of the bulls.

Model Biases/Outlook:

After 14 consecutive days of bearish bias, our models have negated the bearish bias on last Friday, 07/06/18 when it closed at 2759.82! Since then, our models have been consistently forecasting bullish strength and are yet to flash any concerns about any bears in sight, and we reiterate that stand for the 21st consecutive day!

For Friday, 07/27, if the index closes above 2840, it would indicate accelerating bullishness in the market and the index’s impending rise to the 2872 high in the near future. If the index closes between 2840 and 2820, it would indicate consolidation of the bullishness. A close below 2810 would negate the current bullish strength, and a close below 2795 is needed for our bias to turn bearish.

Trading Plans for FRI 07/27/2018:

Medium-term/long-term Investors


As detailed in the Intraday Alert published Thursday morning (click here to refer to the full text of the alert), the medium-term models went long (bought) at the index level of 2840.25, with a 10-point trailing stop, and ended the regular session holding the long. 


For Friday, the medium term models have changed the trailing stop to a simple stop-loss at 2834. If the stop is hit, the medium term models indicate staying flat for the rest of the session.

Aggressive, Short-term, Intraday, or Professional Traders

As detailed in the Intraday Alert published Thursday morning (click here to refer to the full text of the alert), the aggressive, intraday models went long (bought) at the index level of 2840.25, with an 8-point trailing stop which was triggered and filled, and ended the regular session flat (no positions). 


For Friday’s regular session, aggressive, intraday models indicate going long on a break above 2849 if the open is below 2849. A trailing stop of 6-8 points (depending on your individual trading style and risk appetite) is indicated by the models. (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop)

A break below 2830 will trigger the models to go short, with an initial target of 2817, with a trailing stop of 8 points.

IMPORTANT NOTICES & DISCLAIMERS – READ CAREFULLY:

(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.

(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.