Record Bull Run to Continue Unabated or Take a Breather?
Our S&P 500 Index Medium-term models’ Trading Plans for Fri, 09/21 – published before the markets opened – stated: “For today’s regular session, the medium term models indicate carrying through this long position with a stop at 2922 to lock in a 9-point profit should the market fall” (to verify this claim click here for the full forecast published)
The Friday’s reglar session registered a low of 2927.11, thus carrying the medium-term models’ long position (entered at 2913 on Wed, 09/19) into Friday’s close at 2929.67 with a floating profit of 16.67 points.
Our aggressive, intraday models carried a long position – entered at 2906.25 on Wednesday 09/19 – into Friday’s regular session, with the trading plan: “For today’s regular session, aggressive intraday models are raising the trailing stop to 10-points and indicate carrying the long trade until the trailing stop is hit” (to verify this claim click here for the full forecast published)
At the session’s high of 2940.91 on Friday morning, the 10-point trailing stop was anchored at 2930.91 which was hit in the later part of the session, closing out the long with a profit of 25.91 points!
Model Biases/Outlook:
Considering the run-away bull action last week and the gap up on Thursday (09/20) our models are cautious about an anticipated gap-fill down to 2912.50. Given this, our models currently sport a cautiously bullish bias for Mon, 09/24 with no bearish concerns until all the way below 2905. This cautious stand is due to the gap up yesterday, Thu 09/20.
A Brief Trace Back of The Current Bias/Outlook
On Friday, 09/07, our models have entered an “indeterminate” state and have negated their previous bullish bias, but have not adapted a bearish bias, yet. After reiterating this indeterminate bias for seven consecutive days, our models have adopted a “slightly bullish” bias on Wed 09/19.
For Mon, 09/24, we continue this bullish bias, with a cautious stand about the gap-up on Thu 09/20. The next medium-term directional bias will be formed based on if, when, and how that gap would be filled.
Trading Plans for MON, 09/24:
Medium-term/long-term Investors
As detailed at the top of this report, the medium-term models are carrying into today’s regular session the long position opened at 2913 on Wed, 09/19.
For today’s regular session, the medium term models indicate carrying this long position with a stop at 2925 to lock in a 12-point profit should the market fall to that level. If this stop is hit, then the models indicate staying flat for the rest of the session.
Aggressive, Short-term, Intraday, or Professional Traders
As detailed above, our Aggressive, Intraday models closed out on Friday the long position entered into on Wednesday, for a 25.91 points profit! The models are starting the week flat (no positions).
For today’s regular session, aggressive intraday models are indicating going long above 2938 or going short below 2921 – both with a 6-point trailing stop. If a position is opened and later the trailing stop is hit, then the models indicate staying flat for the rest of the day.
Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.