Traders' A.I.

Model Biases/Outlook:

With the mixed action following the midterm results, our models have adopted a cautious, “indeterminate” stand while between 2795 and 2745. As of Wednesday 11/14, this is updated to a “mildly bearish” stand while below 2755, which would turn outright bearish with a daily close below 2685.

As we reiterated since the midterm elections last week, “this market is still likely going to be fraught with bull traps rather than bear traps – be cautious when buying into the spikes”. 

A Brief Trace Back of The Current Bias/Outlook

Thursday, 09/27, our models had negated the previously adopted bullish bias and signaled a neutral bias between 2933 and 2887, which was later updated to 2920 and 2880. 

On a break below 2880 on 10/10/18, our models executed the pre-published trading plan to book 142 points in profit on a short position! Our models have since adopted a “cautiously bearish” bias. This caution is in view of potential spikes up in a whipsaw mode.

As of the close on Wed, 10/24, our models turned bearish and continue to stay bearish while the index is below 2710. While within the 2710-2770 band, we reiterated an “indeterminate” bias for the market till 11/07.

As of the close on Wed, 11/07, our models negated the indeterminate bias and adopted a “cautiously bullish” bias. This is flipped back to “indeterminate” bias following the midterm election results action and will remain so while the index is between 2795 and 2745. 

As of Wed 11/14, we adopted a “mildly bearish” bias while below 2755. We reiterate this bias for the fifth consecutive day today, Mon 11/19.   

Trading Plans for MON, 11/19:

Medium-term/long-term Investors

Our medium-term models are starting the new trading week flat (no positions) and have booked the following performance last week (a total profit of 59 points – all can be publicly verified from the day’s forecast links given): 

Mon 11/12: Booked 21.25 points in profit on a short.
Tue 11/13: Booked 10.50 points in profits on a short. 
Wed 11/14: Booked 15.50 points in profits on a short. 

The Outcome: The index broke above 2725 within the first hour, thus triggering a long position. By 1245EST, the index reached the session high of 2746.75, dragging the 10-point trailing stop’s trigger to 2736.75. The stop was hit in the next 15 minutes, thus booking a profit of 11.75 points. The models stayed flat for the rest of the session.    

Today’s Plan/Forecast: For today, Monday 11/19, our medium-term models indicate going long on a break above 2748, and indicate going short on a break below 2707 during the regular session – with a 10-point trailing stop. If the index does not cross these level during the regular session hours, the models would stay out of the market.   

Aggressive, Short-term, Intraday, or Professional Traders

The Outcome: The index broke above 2725 within the first hour, thus triggering a long position. By 1245EST, the index reached the session high of 2746.75, dragging the 10-point trailing stop’s trigger to 2738.75. The stop was hit in the next 15 minutes, thus booking a profit of 13.75 points. The models stayed flat for the rest of the session.    

Today’s Plan/Forecast: For today, Monday 11/19, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 2748, and going short on a break below 2720 during the regular session – with a 8-point trailing stop.  

NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. P
lease bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop). 

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY: