It is Still About China and Fed Today

With the US-China trade talks ending yesterday and the markets awaiting details of any “outcomes”, and with Fed chair Powell slated to participate in a Q&A session this afternoon, the main movers of the markets today are still China and Powell. Beyond these factors, markets might soon shift their attention to earnings announcements.

Since Wed, 01/09, our models adopted a bullish bias which will be invalidated if the index registers a daily close below 2550. The near term target for this bullish bias is the 2630-2635 band.

Below, you will find our models’ trading plans for today (for the results of the published trading plans for yesterday, click here):

Trading Plans for THU, 01/10:

Medium-term/long-term Models


Today’s Plan/Forecast: For today, Thursday 01/10, our medium-term models indicate trading off of the broad 2607-2547 band – going long on a cross above 2607 and going short on a cross below 2547 – with a 12-point trailing stop on both trades. If these levels are not crossed during the regular session hours, the models would stay flat.

If a long is triggered, the profit target would be 2630, and if a short is triggered the profit target would be 2530.

Results of Yesterday’s Model Trades: Our medium-term models’ trading plans published for yesterday booked -12.20 index points in losses (for the detailed results of the published trading plans for yesterday, click here)

Aggressive, Intraday Models

Today’s Plan/Forecast: For today, Thursday 01/10, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 2582 or 2568, and going short on a break below 2576 or 2563 during regular session hours (9:30am-4:00pm) – with an 8-point trailing stop.

Due to the intraday nature of these models, they indicate closing any open trades at 3:50pm and remaining flat into the session close.

Results of Yesterday’s Model Trades: Our aggressive intraday models’ trading plans published for yesterday booked -1.17 index points in losses (for the detailed results of the published trading plans for yesterday, click here)

NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:

(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.