Most Known Geopolitical Risks Out-of-the-way – Back To Basics?
The much awaited North Korea summit, and the much feared FOMC rate decision are out of the way now with no decisive dominance by either the bulls or the bears! Tomorrow morning, before the markets open for the regular session, even the ECB (European Central Bank) rates decision will be out too! With all the major known geopolitical risks and events out of the way, it is likely that investors would begin to focus on the BASICS – Profit, Loss, and Risk.
Our forecast published last night mentioned: “the models indicate potential false spikes all the way to test 2790-2800 band (on Tuesday, the index approached but not touched the 2790 level, with the high registering at 2789.80)” – the index indeed touched 2791.47 for the day’s high! The fact that it did not go deeper into the band we mentioned indicates rather weak bulls. This was further accentuated by the fall in the markets post-FOMC.
The rest of the sessions in this week – tomorrow and Friday – could be leading up to some inflection point revealing clues about the market direction for the next few weeks.
Our forecast published last night mentioned: “the models indicate potential false spikes all the way to test 2790-2800 band (on Tuesday, the index approached but not touched the 2790 level, with the high registering at 2789.80)” – the index indeed touched 2791.47 for the day’s high! The fact that it did not go deeper into the band we mentioned indicates rather weak bulls. This was further accentuated by the fall in the markets post-FOMC.
The rest of the sessions in this week – tomorrow and Friday – could be leading up to some inflection point revealing clues about the market direction for the next few weeks.
Model Biases/Outlook:
Both the medium-term and short-term models indicate strong bullish bias, albeit with some caution to confirm the key levels (2790-2760-2740) before initating fresh new buying. As per the medium-term forecast published Wednesday night, “medium-term models now indicate switching to a slight bearish bias if the index falls below 2740 on a daily close basis.”. We reiterate that level for the 6th day in a row.
Medium-to-long term Models indicate staying bullish above 2760, flat between 2760 and 2740, and bearish below 2740.
Trading Plans for Thursday, 06/14/2018:
Medium-to-long term investors
The models indicate no short bias until at least a daily close below 2740 (slightly bearish) or below 2735 (outright bearish). Models indicate staying flat (no positions) between 2760-35.
Aggressive, short term, intraday, or professional traders
Those who followed our intraday models would have traded from the long side before the FOMC and from the short side post-FOMC, ending the day flat.
For Thursday, the models indicate trading from the long side while above 2790 and from the short side while below 2770 and staying flat between that range. Use tight stops when buying long as the bulls might be getting weaker/tired by the day. Be wary of potential volatility around the ECB headline risks which may be followed by whipsaw action in both directions.
For Thursday, the models indicate trading from the long side while above 2790 and from the short side while below 2770 and staying flat between that range. Use tight stops when buying long as the bulls might be getting weaker/tired by the day. Be wary of potential volatility around the ECB headline risks which may be followed by whipsaw action in both directions.
TODAY IN THE MARKETS – WED 06/13
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makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
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