Publicly Bullying a Nation’s Pride Makes Not For a Deal-making Strategy! With no major economic or earnings releases on the horizon, markets to obsess over the deteriorating US-China trade dispute situation. Falling yields are beginning to spook the investors. Public bullying of a sovereign nation’s pride seems to have brought us here (we need “diplomats” (more…)

Consumer Confidence and Geopolitics The release of consumer confidence numbers at 10:00am ET may likely be less critical than the yo-yo moves of the investor sentiment surrounding the US-China deal and other geopolitical headlines. When the financial markets’ hope or despair involve politics and not economics, there is something not normal about the state of (more…)

Whipsaw Price Action to Dominate The directionless trading conditions appear to continue into today’s session, with occasional whipsaw moves in either directions. As we wrote yesterday morning, the FOMC meeting minutes’ release ended up a non-event as the geopolitical headlines drove the market sentiment yesterday, and likely continue into today.  Our models are waiting for (more…)

Directionless Trading to Continue The directionless trading conditions appear to persist in the markets. Today’s FOMC meeting minutes’ release feels like a non-event as the Fed seems to be losing its relevance in the current administration. Caution is advised against going short while the index is above 2848 and going long while under 2875. Below, you (more…)

Markets Searching for a Direction With the US-China trade talks getting tiringly protracted/stalled, and in the absence of major headlines, the markets are searching for a direction. Tomorrow’s Fed event may or may not provide some fodder.  Caution is advised against going short while the index is above 2840 and going long while under 2875. Below, (more…)

For the Markets, It’s China front-center-left-and-right…For Now While US-China trade talks have been at the center of the market moving headlines for the last week, it may as quickly be replaced by something else on a whim (FOMC meeting minutes this Wednesday). But, until then, expect China headlines to dominate the market sentiment “explanations”.  Caution (more…)

Markets Running Out of the Benefit-of-doubt Bandwidth? Most of the supporters have been affording this administration a lot of benefit of doubt for every “strategic move” unveiled through Twitter on trade policy. But, when people’s wallets are hurting, their patience and willingness to forgive the roller coaster rides that ensue twitter tantrums will run out (more…)

Bull-Bear Dog Fight to Continue With the bears out in the open and the bulls trying to defend their territory, expect a dog fight between the two sides until the market falls in one-side’s territory decisively. As of now, the market has gotten out of the bull’s territory but is not in the bear territory, (more…)

The Lurking Bear is Now Out In the Open The economic numbers today have brought the lurking bear finally out in the open. Yet, the path ahead for the bears is not necessarily smooth and our models are still “cautious” about the bearish bias until a daily close below 2895 is registered.  Extreme caution is (more…)

The Bulls are Down Exhausted and the Bears are Celebrating – for Now The damage to the market bulls from the trade war’s backfiring leaves the bears emerging out into the open. Yet, the path ahead for the markets is not necessarily clear in the directional bias – both sides have to tread cautiously and (more…)