Our Short from Friday Working Well and Re-iterated Our positional models’ short from the trading plans published Friday, 12/17, morning is doing exceedingly well. We titled our trading plans for Monday, 12/06, with “Get Ready for the Tightening Ahead”, and we held off from much trading since then until after the FOMC release this week. (more…)
The Fed Punchbowl is Taken Away – Party Over! We titled our trading plans for Monday, 12/06, with “Get Ready for the Tightening Ahead”, and we held off from much trading since then until after the FOMC release this week. Our models continue that theme of risk-off. The Fed-induced bubbles in the asset markets are (more…)
Is that Grinch or Santa in Disguise? The markets’ reaction to the much anticipated confirmation from the Fed of the tapering and the rate hikes ahead seems to have taken many retail traders by surprise – didn’t almsot everyone kept saying that the markets “should” go down if that happens?! While there can be a (more…)
Getting Setup for the Big Two Events Ahead The recovery from last Friday’s sell-off likely to continue till the inflation numbers event this Friday. Barring any unexpected negative macro developments, it is likely that we may see another record high prior to – or, following – the inflation numbers on Friday. This will, of course, (more…)
Get Ready for the Tightening Ahead Friday’s declines and this morning’s jump up in the markets could be symptomatic of the nervousness the markets are going through regarding the upcoming Fed’s policy shift towards tightening. This speculation – back and forth – will likely continue until the FOMC meeting next week. Expect choppiness to prevail (more…)
When Bad News is Good News…Be Afraid This morning’s bad news in November NFP print is being treated as good news (“Yey! Now the Fed has to slow down tightening!”), it goes to show how the markets are now driven by the monetary policy tightening or not tightening. This speculation – back and forth – (more…)
Fire Sale or Falling Knife? This morning’s action suggests that some investors are seeing the sell-off as a fire sale and are going shopping, while the nature of the sell off suggests some are seeing this as a falling knife. Chances are, both will be proven correct, in different time frames. It’s not about whether (more…)
Jobs Numbers, Options Expiration, Thin Liquidity Today’s Jobs number is not supportive of imminent interest rate cuts. It being Friday, options expiration levels would also pull the market in various ways. And, most professionals may be taking a long weekend, leading to thin liquidity. Together, these factors could be making for a choppy market today. (more…)
Powell’s Diffidence-turned-Dissidence to Torpedo Markets Buoyed by Rate-cut Hope/Hype? Chairman Powell’s remarks cautionary words about not succumbing to “short term political pressures” should – and did – sound alarm bells for the markets buoyed mainly by hope/hype about imminent interest rate cuts starting in as early as July. Can the markets sustain Powell’s dashing (more…)
