When Bad News is Good News…Be Afraid This morning’s bad news in November NFP print is being treated as good news (“Yey! Now the Fed has to slow down tightening!”), it goes to show how the markets are now driven by the monetary policy tightening or not tightening. This speculation – back and forth – (more…)
Fire Sale or Falling Knife? This morning’s action suggests that some investors are seeing the sell-off as a fire sale and are going shopping, while the nature of the sell off suggests some are seeing this as a falling knife. Chances are, both will be proven correct, in different time frames. It’s not about whether (more…)
Omicron Worries to Offset Inflation Worries? The lack of follow through for Friday’s Omicron-induced steep drop, and yesterday’s price action coupled with this morning’s price action so far seems to suggest that the markets may not be panicking about Omicron as it could lead to assuaging some inflation concerns that seem to weigh heavy on (more…)
Friday’s Steep Drop Not Scaring the Markets, for Now Our last trading plan published Tuesday morning stated: “This morning’s price action so far indicates to renewed uncertainty and unease in the markets with the various issues investors are trying to grapple with: Rising inflation, rising yields, Powell’s apparently diminishing credibility, and the Covid situation in (more…)
Happy Thanksgiving! No Trading Plans Today We do not have to trade every single day! Happy Thanksgiving to you and all your loved ones! We will be back with our morning trading plans on Monday, 11/29. (Our positional trading models will continue to carry the open short into the holiday shortened weekend)
Rising Yields, Inflation, Covid-in-Europe, and Powell After the initial pop following Powell’s re-appoiontment, markets started unwinding the recent gains in a listless fashion. This morning’s price action so far indicates to renewed uncertainty and unease in the markets with the various issues investors are trying to grapple with: Rising inflation, rising yields, Powell’s apparently (more…)
Biden Shows Confidence In Powell – Will Markets Show the Same? Biden showed confidence in Powell’s leadership at the Fed by reappointing him as the chair. It remains to be seen whether the markets show the same confidence or judge it as a bad decision. Whether the markets like the reappointment or hate it, it (more…)
Markets to Obsess over Fed Chair and European Covid Situation? The (new?) Fed Chair nomination over this weekend and the worsening Covid situation in Europe seems to be the current sources of market tension that is likely to unwind in a violent way in the next few days. Expect the 4715 level – on a (more…)
The Coiled Markets to Unwind Soon? Markets appear to be building up a lot of pentup tension that is likely to unwind in a violent way in the next few days. The upcoming Fed chair (re?)appointment could pave way to this. Expect the 4715 level on the S&P 500 to be the critical level to (more…)
Open Short Survived by 0.05 points! The short that was opened last Wednesday, 11/10, had a stop loss at 4715 and the S&P 500 index reached a session high of 4714.95 and left the short alive! Looks like our models nailed it by identifying this level days in advance…may be by fluke or may be (more…)
