Santa Rally, Year-end Rally, January Effect… Despite the sense of the logic of not holding risky assets with high valuations going into the imminent Fed hikes, it is NOT enough rationale to go shorting this market. Bears have many head winds for the next few weeks – the Santa Rally, then the year-end rally, then (more…)
Recovery Attempts to Hold? Notwithstanding any artificial “Santa-rally or Year-end rally” in the offing, we re-iterate – for the next few weeks – what we wrote in our trading plans for Friday, 12/17: “The Fed-induced bubbles in the asset markets are showing signs of deflating swiftly (if not bursting, yet). There are very little – (more…)
Our Short from Friday Working Well and Re-iterated Our positional models’ short from the trading plans published Friday, 12/17, morning is doing exceedingly well. We titled our trading plans for Monday, 12/06, with “Get Ready for the Tightening Ahead”, and we held off from much trading since then until after the FOMC release this week. (more…)
The Fed Punchbowl is Taken Away – Party Over! We titled our trading plans for Monday, 12/06, with “Get Ready for the Tightening Ahead”, and we held off from much trading since then until after the FOMC release this week. Our models continue that theme of risk-off. The Fed-induced bubbles in the asset markets are (more…)
Is that Grinch or Santa in Disguise? The markets’ reaction to the much anticipated confirmation from the Fed of the tapering and the rate hikes ahead seems to have taken many retail traders by surprise – didn’t almsot everyone kept saying that the markets “should” go down if that happens?! While there can be a (more…)
Getting Setup for the Big Two Events Ahead The recovery from last Friday’s sell-off likely to continue till the inflation numbers event this Friday. Barring any unexpected negative macro developments, it is likely that we may see another record high prior to – or, following – the inflation numbers on Friday. This will, of course, (more…)
Get Ready for the Tightening Ahead Friday’s declines and this morning’s jump up in the markets could be symptomatic of the nervousness the markets are going through regarding the upcoming Fed’s policy shift towards tightening. This speculation – back and forth – will likely continue until the FOMC meeting next week. Expect choppiness to prevail (more…)
When Bad News is Good News…Be Afraid This morning’s bad news in November NFP print is being treated as good news (“Yey! Now the Fed has to slow down tightening!”), it goes to show how the markets are now driven by the monetary policy tightening or not tightening. This speculation – back and forth – (more…)
Fire Sale or Falling Knife? This morning’s action suggests that some investors are seeing the sell-off as a fire sale and are going shopping, while the nature of the sell off suggests some are seeing this as a falling knife. Chances are, both will be proven correct, in different time frames. It’s not about whether (more…)
Omicron Worries to Offset Inflation Worries? The lack of follow through for Friday’s Omicron-induced steep drop, and yesterday’s price action coupled with this morning’s price action so far seems to suggest that the markets may not be panicking about Omicron as it could lead to assuaging some inflation concerns that seem to weigh heavy on (more…)
