Trump Trumps Mueller or Vice Versa? That is The Question Today! Markets are likely going to be fixated on Mueller’s testimony today and be stuck in a tight range until it is over. Which way the markets would break out would depend on the question of the day: Would Mueller Trump Trump or Trump Would (more…)
Rates, Trump, Earnings: Earnings the Starting Theme for Today Markets are getting a positive push from the earnings this morning. Our models indicate sustained bullish moves and/or bullish consolidation until/unless some strong and unexpected negative developments show up in the earnings arena or on the interest rates front (or, on the geopolitical sphere). Read below (more…)
Rates Trump Earnings or Rates, Trump, and Earnings? As the earnings season is kicking into gear, the talk of impending economic slowdown and the calls for rate cuts (as deep as 50 basis points) are morphing from a background noise to a clamor. History shows that the interest rates trump the earnings weakness or any (more…)
More Koolaid or Not – That Seems to be The Question of the Day! As has become evident (again) with yesterday’s market action, investors (or, market “players”?) seem to be hanging on to the “hope” (and, “demand”/”expectation”) that the Fed is going to cut the rates deeply (read, by 50 basis points) this month. But, (more…)
No Bull, No Bear…Goldilocks Forever? As we wrote as the theme for the Markets this week, stocks continue to be driven by earnings related headlines (Netflix, anyone?), but the market action’s underpinnings point to technicals at a dominant role rather than fundamentals…for now. To avoid subjective knee jerk stands about the markets driving your trading (more…)
Earnings Headlines to Drive the Markets In the absence of major, unexpected geopolitical headlines (China’s slowing growth has been expected, old news), markets seem to be set to focus on the earnings headlines for today. And, those headlines look to be on the side of the bulls as of this morning. As we wrote on (more…)
How Long Can this Ride Last? That’s Not the Right Question! As we wrote yesterday morning’s outlook, trying to justify what our “gut” “feeling” says what “should or should not be” happening in the markets is NOT what one should do to invest or trade in the markets. Yet, most individual investors/traders are known to (more…)
It’s All About the Monetary Policy Today! The S&P 500 futures are up with the release of Powell’s prepared testimony, and seem to be celebrating a potential confirmation that the fed would be cutting the rates in its July meeting – which was being already factored in with a 100% probability in the derivatives markets! (more…)
Beware of Sharks in Shallow Waters (low liquidity) Due to the shortened trading hours for the July 4th holiday, expect thin trading in the markets. When liquidity is low, typically retail traders get whip-sawed with wild, sudden moves OR sustained moves in a direction opposite to the majority retail positioning (market makers, anyone?). Unless you (more…)
Directionless Trading to Continue into the G-20 Summit Weekend Barring any major, unexpected economic or geopolitical headlines, the markets are likely going to be in a holding pattern until the G-20 summit, which could shed some light on the potential for any resolution to the trade war. With the interest rate cut hopes drying up, (more…)
