And Then the (Fed) Doves Became Hawks! Fed’s Brainard and Daly – two well known doves – are spooking the markets by turning into hawks with their public comments yesterday. Markets are reacting as if the Fed’s resolve to fight inflation is some flash news. Neither may be surprising for keen Fed/bond market observers. As (more…)
Continued Retracement or a Bull Trap? Day 4 Our last trading plan – published on 03/29, Tuesday – stated: “The retracement from the lows seen over two week back could be coming to a peak today or sometime this week. The price action around this peak would reveal the next near term directional bias in (more…)
Continued Retracement or a Bull Trap? The retracement from the lows seen over two week back could be coming to a peak today or sometime this week. The price action around this peak would reveal the next near term directional bias in the markets, if any. Whether it is going to be a consolidation against (more…)
Interest Rates to Start Chipping Away At the Markets Our trading plans last week wrote: “Unless Powell sounds unexpectedly more hawkish, chances are the reail shorts could get burned before any directional move settles in”. Yesterday’s inflation comments from chair Powell could be that “unexpectedly more hawkish” (or, something the markets were hoping not to (more…)
Rate Hike Failed to Scare the Markets? Our trading plans yesterday indicated: “Unless Powell sounds unexpectedly more hawkish, chances are the reail shorts could get burned before any directional move settles in”. If you followed the markets yesterday, you know how it unfolded. Yep, spot on! The “sell the rumor, buy the news” spike up (more…)
Inflation, Interest Rates, and War – Easy Short, Eh? As we first wrote in our trading plans on Mon 03/07/22, “barring any surprises, markets could be setting up for a sudden and violent move up, in the coming week or two”. With what looks like an apparent no brainer short, many retail traders seem to (more…)
Oil and Commodity Prices Relentlessly rising oil and commodity prices could be giving nightmares to Fed chair Powell. The wild card in the current market scenario is the upcoming FOMC rate decision, which also might be already pricing in the worst case scenario. As we first wrote in our trading plans yesterday, Mon 03/07/22, barring (more…)
Initial Jobless Claims and Surging Commodity Prices While Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is the headline of the day, lost in that are the initial jobless claims numbers released this morning. With such jobs numbers and the rising commodity prices due to the geopolitical tensions, the Fed is likely going to be caught between a rock (more…)
Choppy Trading to Continue The FOMC-meeting minutes are not spooking the markets, yet. The impressive earnings from major companies are not lifting the markets, yet. Beyond this, the inflation and the rising yields seem to be stoking anxiety and uncertainty all around, and the markets look like they are searching for a direction. After entering (more…)
Temporary Geopolitical Reprieve or Potential pre FOMC-minutes Bull Trap? After an impressive week last week, our models have gone into an indeterminate state yesterday. This morning, the models are pointing to potential consolidation to the recent sell off – whether it be attributable to the apparent de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine tensions or a sense of (more…)
