Precarious Ascent We wrote in yesterday’s trading plans: “Our models continue to indicate a cautious stance, wanting to see the index take out the 4435 level we published on Tue, 08/03 in a convincing manner today, and hold into the session close”. Our models are not convinced of the price action yesterday, and are not (more…)

Red Hot Bull or Red Hot Inflation? Although the “core inflation” is less than expected/feared, the market’s cheering of the numbers underlies the energy and food inflation that average Joes and Janes feels pinched by. And, it reflects a hope and expectation that the energy and food inflation would moderate soon, which remains to be (more…)

All Noise and No Signal Despite the index holding near record highs throughout the last week and posting yet another record high of 4436.52 on Friday’s close (just 1.52 points above the level of 4435 our models are monitoring), our models continue to indicate a cautious stance, wanting to see the index take out the (more…)

Market Froth Warrants Caution Despite the index holding near record high posted on Tue, 08/03, our models continue to indicate a cautious stance, wanting to see the index take out the 4435 level we published on the same day. After riding the last bullish run and booking a 90+ points profit on a long position, (more…)

Potential Top in Place Disregarding the new record high the index posted yesterday, our models are adapting a cautious stance, wanting to see the index take out the 4435 level we published yesterday. Two consecutive daily closes below the 4400 level our models were monitoring, coupled with consecutive daily lows made our models close out (more…)

Our Models Taking the Profits and Going Flat Two consecutive daily closes below the 4400 level our models were monitoring, coupled with consecutive daily lows making our models close out the positional trading long opened at 4320, and booking profits of 90+ points. Yesterday’s high number of flip-flop trades by our aggressive models indicated to (more…)

First-trading-day-of-the-month Flows to Prop it Up? As our regular readers would be familiar with, our models indicate a default bias to the upside on the first trading day of every month, due to the inflows of systematic investment funds (think 401k, pension plans, and other retirement funds). Unless there is some strong negative tone to (more…)

A Small Consolidation, Until Proven Otherwise This morning’s weakness in the markets, post-Amazon earnings disappointment, is within the consolidation range and not indicating any major trouble for the index – at least not yet. A daily close below 4400 will lead to our models re-evaluating the bias. Our positional models’ longs from 4320 level are (more…)

The Fed, Interest Rates, and Inflation Today, it’s going to be all about the Fed, the interest rates outlook, and more importantly the Inflation outlook. Whiel nobody is epxecting the Fed to do or say something unexpected on the interest rates, what they say (and, don’t say) about the rising inflation (that average Joes and (more…)

Waiting for Big Tech Earnings and Fed The record highs are likely to be consolidated while the markets are waiting for the big tech earnings and the Fed to set the mood for the next leg. Our models indicate no directional action until the Fed is out tomorrow after noon. Our positional models’ longs from (more…)