Melting Up In our trading plan for Tuesday, 06/22, we wrote: “After a big move on both Friday and Monday, the index is essentially where it was mid last week! 4250-4215 remains the key range to break out of”. The index is testing the top of this range today and the price action around the (more…)

Choppy, Range-bound Trading The flip-flop on inflation concerns from the Fed induced some relief rally yesterday, but the price action in S&P 500 index is anything but directional as of this morning. After a big move on both Friday and Monday, the index is essentially where it was mid last week! 4250-4215 remains the key (more…)

Triple Witching Day Volatility! The inflation and Fed-inflation-fighting-capability concern coupled with the Triple Witching day today should make a perfect recipe for volatility! Today is not a day to engage in positional trading. Nor is it a good day to engage in knee-jerk trading as there can be a lot of whipsaw action. For positional (more…)

Markets Attempting to Look Past Inflation After the rather concerning admission from the Fed that they underestimated how hot the inflation could be running – albeit Powell’s attempt to paint it as still of not much concern – markets are mixed with Dow showing weakness while Nasdaq lifting up, with S&P 500 seemingly still trying (more…)

Markets in the Fed-wait Mode After posting yet another record high, the S&P 500 index is taking a breather, waiting (hoping?) for the Fed to throw something tomorrow to put some fire under it. Lack of that fire could slowly melt the index down. We might know tomorrow by 2:30/2:45pm which way it will play (more…)

The “Record-High-Inflation and Record-High-Stocks” Goldilocks Scenario to Continue Forever? After struggling for eight days in a row, the index recorded yet another record high intra-day yesterday, but the follow through was disappointing. The high read on the inflation data could be keeping a lid on the gains for sometime, unless and until the inflation is (more…)

Struggling to Scale New Highs For the seventh trading day in a row, the S&P 500 index has been struggling to record a new high. A daily close above 4245 can unleash a fresh wave of buying, but it still remains an elusive target for the bulls. For positional trading: Our models indicate a long (more…)

Models Flashing Caution Signal On our trading plans for Tue, 06/01, we wrote: “A failure to sustain that (new peak) could mark the high for the index for some time to come”. The index not only failed to make a new high on the flows of the first-of-the-month, but the price action lead our models (more…)

Next Peak on First-of-the-month? Our regular readers are familiar with the first-of-the-month hypothesis we publish here. It is that time of the month, again…our models indicate a potential to register a new high on the index today. A failure to sustain that could mark the high for the index for some time to come. For (more…)