Divergent Factors at Play This week’s Fed meeting should give us a better look into how the divergent factors (such as inflation versus growth) at play might be dealt with by the Fed, and how the markets might perceive the likelihood that the Fed will succeed. In the mean time, the markets likely to continue...
Re-opening Trade at the Crossroads of Inflation versus Growth With last two trading sessions closing above our last published range of 3915-3865, our models are in a cautiously bullish bias mode. We need a daily close above 3945 for it to be sustainable. A close below 3885 negates this bullish bias. For positional trading, models...
Our models entered into an indeterminate bias loop. No trades indicated for today. Will see you all here on Monday, 03/15.
Stuck in a Whipsaw Range? Yesterday’s treasury auction results calmed the nerves of the markets about the rising yields. Does that mean the equity markets now deserve to continue to go up and keep making record highs? We do not know, but our models are stuck in an indeterminate bias while the index is within...
Brace for More Roller Coaster The strong close from yesterday has our models negate the bearish bias and back in the indeterminate bias range. The treasury auction yields to be announced this afternoon will likely set the tone and direction for the next leg. For positional trading, models indicate a bearish bias while below 3865...
Enjoy the Ride if You Can! Our models continue to flash the caution signs for bulls this week, despite the strong opening on the session so far. Our trading plans published yesterday stated: “A daily close above 3840 will negate this bias (our models are rejecting Friday’s daily close just under two points above this...
Models Flashing Caution Everywhere! Since switching to a bearish bias after being in an indeterminate state for four weeks, our models are flashing the highest level of caution signs for bulls this week, following the last week’s clear breakdown of the long held range we were publishing. For positional trading, models continue to indicate a...
Strong Jobs, Strong Yields, and Strong Stocks?! This mornings NFP data shows a red-hot job market, which initially sent the 10-year yields to a one-year high and the index futures spinning to fresh lows before rebounding. The yields appear stabilized a bit for now, with all the major index futures registering 1%+ spike up. Remains...
Market Bull A Little Tired? Our trading plans yesterday stated: “The price action on Tue, 03/02, confirmed our models’ suspicion of the spike of this Monday, with the index closing back within the range of 3930-3880 that we have been indicating for the last four weeks (and, the index stuck in it for the fifth...
Monday’s Spike Now Confirmed Spurious Our trading plans on Mon, 03/01: “Our models are suspicious of today’s spike up as caused by the “first-of-month” artificial/systematic inflows, and remain in bearish bias while the index is below 3905 on a daily close basis”. And, we stated on Tue, 03/02: “The index’s close at 3901 fell short...
