Beware the Four Witches Today! Today being the Quad Witching day (options on four different kinds of instruments expire today – index futures, single stock futures, options on index futures, options on single stock futures), expect hightened volatility today. Beware sudden spikes in either direction, especially during the last hour of the trading. Positional Trading (more…)

Not Going Anywhere Fast The market internals point to many divergences across different segments which makes for a rough ride for a while – regardless of whether you are a bull or a bear. If taking new positions, you might need wide stops to let those positions play out. If you don’t have enough capital (more…)

Our Positional Models Turning Short After selling a long and going flat, our positional models are going to take a short position on the open following the index’s close below 4445 yesterday which has been the published take-a-short level. As we wrote in our morning trading plans yesterday: “The pattern of early session gains followed (more…)

Caution Signals Emerging The price action last few days is causing our models to raise some early caution to the bulls. The pattern of early session gains followed by losses behooves the bulls to turn a bit more cautious against jumping in. Our models indicate no bullish bias while the index is below 4515 on (more…)

No Bull. No Bear. In our last trading plan – published on Thu 09/09 morning – we announced that our positional models went flat after selling an open long position, with a directional bias shift to neutral. Over the two sessions, markets slipped through some of the support levels we have been publishing, confirming our (more…)

Models Took Profits on the Longs and Went Flat In yesterday’s trading plans, we wrote: “Until there is a clear confirmation of a directional change, our positional models continue to sport a long bias – which could very well be occurring today if the daily close is going to be below 4515 (typo had it (more…)

A Potential Drift Lower Currently, the markets appear to be entering into an exhaustion phase, following a long string of record highs. However, there is no downside threat seen by our models, yet. Until there is a clear confirmation of a directional change, our positional models continue to sport a long bias – which could (more…)

No Catalysts Until Earnings With last Friday’s Jobs data disappointing and the COVID related headlines not very encouraging, the markets might take a pause until the earnings season kicks in. However, there is no downside threat seen by our models, yet. Until there is a clear confirmation of a directional change, our positional models continue (more…)

First Trading Day of the Month With the first-of-month flows likely supporting the index today (our regular readers recognize this bias in our trading plans), there may not be any meaningful pullback today even if there is some negative headlines, until the payroll data are released this Friday morning. Until there is a clear confirmation (more…)