Bear – Nice or Naughty? Christmas eve shortened markets to experience low liquidity and spiky moves primarily driven by stop hunting of shorts. Exaggerated moves likely in either direction to wipe out weak hands/stops until normal liquidity and volumes return post holidays. Structurally, we are still in the bull territory. A daily close below 3180 (more…)
Holiday-thin Liquidity to Drive Spiky Moves Holiday thinned markets to experience low liquidity and spiky moves primarily driven by stop hunting. Exaggerated moves in either direction to wipe out weak hands/stops until normal liquidity and volumes return post holidays. Structurally, we are still in the bull territory. A daily close below 3180 is needed to (more…)
Large Options Positions to Drive the Price Action Today There are very large options positions along the strikes in the broad range of 3180-3225 which is likely to draw intense battles at every 5-point interval, with 3200 the main pivot (very large number of Calls to expire today). Unless some major unexpected headlines hit the (more…)
Thinning Liquidity and Large Options Positions With the holidays upon us and the liquidity thinning, and with large call positions expiring tomorrow, expect the tight range to get broadened with wild spikes in either direction today and mainly tomorrow. As we wrote yesterday, “The unabated bull run is likely going to slow down a bit, (more…)
This Roller Coaster for both Bulls and Bears The unabated bull run is likely going to slow down a bit, albeit not getting negated any time soon. Unless some major unexpected headlines hit the markets, expect choppy range trading into the year end, with occasional sudden spikes in either direction. Structurally, we are still in (more…)
This Bull Isn’t Going Away Anytime Soon? There is no change in the story of this bull market! Our Friday morning trading plan wrote: “If you went short on that lack of detail and against what our models have been consistently indicating, you may be spooked by the continued apparent strength of the bulls”. That (more…)
Markets Unraveling to Inflict Maximum Pain Our Friday morning trading plan wrote: “If you went short on that lack of detail and against what our models have been consistently indicating, you may be spooked by the continued apparent strength of the bulls”. That spooky story is extending into this week, with strong gains in overnight (more…)
Tight Spiky Range Turned Spooky? Overnight futures have continued accumulating gains on top of yesterday’s spike up on Trump’s pumping up of the “Phase-1” (aka, diluted) China trade deal that was light on detail. If you went short on that lack of detail and against what our models have been consistently indicating, you may be (more…)
Tight Range, Spiky Today’s weekly jobless claims number may raise some concerned eyebrows but we doubt if it would cause the markets to break out of the tight range they have been stuck in for this week. Until something significant moves the markets out of the range, no directional moves are likely. Care should be (more…)
Today’s FOMC Rate Decision Today’s rate decision announcement from the Fed is going to be just a yawn – nobody is anticipating any fireworks from it. It’s the Goldilocks scenario – except for the overnight lending markets and their cash crunch. Unless there are any major unexpected revelations, expect today’s market to repeat yesterday’s choppy, (more…)
