When Bad News is Celebrated ‘Cause It’s Not Worse Notwithstanding the FOMC’s initiation of aggressive tightening with yesterday’s 50 basis points hike in interest rates, markets seemed to have celebrated that the committee was not considering a 75 basis points hike. That steep rise in markets seem to be dissipating in the first hour of (more…)
Markets Trying to Second Guess the Fed’s Resolve? With the 10-year yields easing off of the highs reached yesterday, the stock indexes seem to be rallying – based on the morning’s price action. Considering that the Fed is just going to get started their aggressive tightening from tomorrow’s FOMC decision, this “rally” seems to be (more…)
Earnings Exuberance? After registering the session low of 4162.90 in yesterday’s session S&P 500 appears to be on an attempt to rebound, apparently powered by the earnings from Meta/FaceBook and on anticipation of earnings from Amazon and Apple. How long this may last is anybody’s question. Our positional models will avoid going long while the index (more…)
Another Bull Trap Goes on the Record! In the morning of Thu, 04/21, when the markets were upbeat and most analysts were pumping the markets with the “inflation is peaking” narrative, we wrote this in our trading plans: “the levels our positional trading models indicated (4495-4517) are likely coming into play today and in the (more…)
Potential Chop Fest Ahead As we wrote in our trading plans yesterday (Wed, 04/20): “Models are flashing early signs that the index could be nearing another near term crest in the coming days, but are sporting a neutral bias as of now, with a cautious signal to the bulls”. And, the levels our positional trading (more…)
Earnings Earnings Everywhere And… After the kickstart to the earnings season last Wednesday, 04/13, our models have gone into an indeterminate state with no signals in either direction. Models are flashing early signs that the index could be nearing another near term crest in the coming days, but are sporting a neutral bias as of (more…)
Earnings Season to Exhilarate or Exasperate? Within a week after publishing our trading plans on Fri, 04/08, S&P 500 has breached the indicated support levels of 4500 and 4460, and has confirmed our directional bias to the downward. The earnings season kicking off today may be the last hope the markets have to stop the (more…)
When Fear-and-Greed Turns Into Hope-and-Despair… From the last few years of fear-and-greed, the mood on the markets seems to be oscillating between hope-and-despair, indicating subdued spirits on part of the investors. However, the VIX levels are hovering around 20 range, indicating that the downside is not really flushed out, yet. The upcoming earnings season could (more…)
No More Kool-aid to the Markets! The various officials at the Fed have made it a point this week to orchestrate a unified message: “We have no more Kool-aid left to serve the markets! And, we probably don’t care about the markets now.”. After some skittish moves, the markets seem to be entering a phase (more…)
And Then the (Fed) Doves Became Hawks! Fed’s Brainard and Daly – two well known doves – are spooking the markets by turning into hawks with their public comments yesterday. Markets are reacting as if the Fed’s resolve to fight inflation is some flash news. Neither may be surprising for keen Fed/bond market observers. As (more…)
