New Highs or Consolidation Ahead? The 50% retracement from last month’s crash is under test at 2796. A daily close above 2800 is needed to confirm the potential for further highs, while a failure to take it out means that the next leg would be to the down side. Only time can tell which side (more…)
Bulls Gunning for the Next Top? In yesterday’s trading plans wrote: “we need a daily close above 2750 to negate this”. The market easily negated that top and the opening action on the index indicates that bulls might be gunning for the next top – the 50% retracement level around 2793. A daily close above (more…)
Interim Top in Place! Our models are indicating that an interim top might be in place yesterday, and we need a daily close above 2750 to negate this. A daily close below 2630 confirms the top and might resume some selling pressure. Models caution against leaving any longs open overnight while below 2750. Between 2630 (more…)
Key Fibonacci Retracement Target Reached For the last two weeks, every morning we wrote (you can go access any day’s trading plan to see it for yourself) that our models have been looking for a daily close above 2620 to adopt a slightly bullish bias, which we got yesterday. Sure enough, overnight futures have already (more…)
Roller Coasters Can be Fun…Until Your Stomach Starts Churning Overnight futures are up more than 3% on apparent optimism about early signs of flattening of the “corona-curve”. FOMO seems to be driving the markets’ upside, and fear, pain (of not being able to take the losses in the choppy moves), and structural issues (margin calls, (more…)
Job Losses And Oil Price Rises? With just the beginning of the job losses, some are wondering if this is the right time to prop up oil prices. With the coronavirus impacts far from known, it could be premature to talk about helping raise oil prices by the US government even if it might appear (more…)
Job Losses Not Expected? Overreaction? Overnight futures were up and then the gains evaporated after the 8:30am (ET) release of the initial jobless claims. While huge job losses were expected, looks like the markets are reacting to the much higher than expected/feared magnitude of the job losses and their stoking of the fears of recession (more…)
Real Market Sentiment to Reveal Itself Today! As many veterans on the markets have been referring to, the last few days of “bounce” in the markets could be mainly driven by the quarter-end portfolio asset allocation re-balancing (back to 60/40 equity/bond model). Some part of the “window dressing” flows could also have propped up the (more…)
Quarter-end Window Dressing or Moral Hazard? The well known quarter-end “Window dressing” by funds and institutional advisors could put artificial pressure to the upside on the markets today. At the same time, since the quarter is anyway big negative one, could it also spark funds to dump losers and/or rotate into “wish list” stocks that (more…)
Advantage None Our models have rejected the daily close above the 2510 level last week and are looking for a daily close above 2560 today to turn mildly bullish. The short term bottom might be in at 2191.86, possibly until the earnings season kicks in in a couple of weeks, but there is no directional (more…)
