S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 5/3/24
In our trading plans published on FOMC day we stated: “…Yesterday, Monday, 4/29/24, the index closed by a hair-thin margin above that level with a close at 5116.17. Keeping in mind the FOMC event tomorrow, our models are ignoring that close above our level and are looking for a confirmation”. Following a spike up after the FOMC release, the index gave up all the gains and ended lower after the end of the Powell press conference, cementing the 5116 level as a strong resistance to overcome for the bulls.
This morning’s post-NFP release market action in the futures markets indicate a huge gap-up in the index at the open, likely bringing our 5116 level back into play. It remains to be seen whether the index can manage to register a daily close above 5116. That would determine our models’ bias for the near term. Between 5056 and 5116 on the index on a daily close basis, our models indicate an indeterminate bias.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate potential whipsaw with major key levels under test, and indicate staying on the sidelines. No trading plans for the day.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the open of the last seconds bar (3:59:59 pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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