S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 6/7/24
This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls data indicates stronger-than-hoped-for job market, which appears to be stoking quashing the recent optimism about potential rate cuts. This is pushing the futures down, but it remains to be seen if this would be sustained once the regular session starts or if the FOMO of AI and other “euphoria” steps in to cushion the potential decline.
For the last few weeks, the positional bias published in our trading plans has been: “It takes a daily close below 5200 for the models to turn bearish”. Last Friday’s PCE-driven whipsaw move saw the index briefly breach the 5200 level – printing 5191.68 as the session low – before staging a stunning reversal that took the index on a swift, V-shaped rally that pushed the close more than 85 points above from the session low. This continued for the next few sessions to record another new high, and there is no meaningfully bearish technical indications in the vicinity.
Since flipping to a bullish bias on the break of 5116, our models continue to be bullish. Models would carry the bullish bias while the index is above 5245 on a daily close basis. It takes a daily close below 5200 for the models to turn bearish. Between 5245 and 5200, models would be in an indeterminate mode.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
To get these Trading Plans directly in your inbox when we publish them, please subscribe to our Substack at tradersai.substack.com.
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate sitting on the sidelines – no trading plans for today.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #softlanding, #consolidation, #newbullmarket, #earnings, #recordhigh, #sp5000, #sp5k, #alltimehigh, #nonfarmpayrolls, #nfp, #jobs, #cpi, #iran, #israel, #geopoliticaltensions, #fomc, #ratecuts, #ratecuthopes, #newhigh, #recordhigh, #ppi, #cpi, #nvidia, #memestocks, #gamestop, #adp, #payrolls, #nfp