S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 7/19/24
As of yesterday, Thursday, 7/18/24, our positional models’ guidance (as published) has been: “Since flipping to a bullish bias on the break of 5116, our models continue to be bullish. Models would carry this bullish bias while the index is above 5560 on a daily close basis. It takes a daily close below 5545 for the models to turn bearish. Between 5560 and 5545, models would be in an indeterminate mode”.
Yesterday, on the heels of two days of down turn, the index closed at 5544.59 – just less than half a point below our critical level that we have been publishing for the last few weeks. As of this morning, we have negated our bullish bias, and are adapting a bearish bias while the index is below 5573. It takes a daily close above 5607 for our models to turn bullish again. Between 5573 and 5607, our positional bias would be indeterminate.
We reiterate what we published in our trading plans on Wednesday, 7/17: “Trump’s rhetoric on Taiwan apparently is jolting the markets out of the Trump Presidency 2.0 euphoria, bringing them into the realities of potential geopolitical reckoning and chaos a second Trump term can bring in. With this (sudden?) realization, investors seem to be going back to basics and reflecting on more realistic and important factors (“valuations” anyone?). It remains to be seen how long any such rational considerations would last, especially in the midst of all the hype an election year’s political antics spreads around. Last night’s Global IT Outage could dent the AI-hype and damage the already vulnerable Tech stocks.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 5569, 5558, 5527, 5506, or 5501 with a 7-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 5568, 5556, 5524, 5515, or 5500 with a 7-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 5596, 5587, 5544, or 5505, and explicit short exits on a break above 5597, 5546, 5516, or 5483. Models also indicate instituting a break-even stop (which would trigger on a break above/below the entry level) once a position hits a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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