S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 8/12/24
With the fewer-than-expected initial jobless claims last week, markets are trying to parse the various macroeconomic news over the past week to figure out whether the economy is in a Goldilocks scenario heading for a soft landing or if they might be drinking Koolaid. The answer may not be as clear as one would wish for, and hence there may not be any directional bias settling into the markets any time soon. This week’s flurry of economic releases could add to the ambivalence unless there are going to be unexpectedly big surprises in the numbers.
In the trading plans published on Fri, 8/2/24, we wrote: “Whether a buy-the-rumor sell-the-news will follow after the initial run up remains to be seen next week”. Late session steep drop overnight coupled with the post-NFP volatility in the pre-market session is indicating a range-expansion and increased volatility until the September rate cut”. That hypothesis came true on Friday, and saw its full manifestation in the the market rout on Monday, 8/5/24.
Per our published trading plans on Thu., 8/8/24: “It takes a daily close above 5280 for the models to turn bullish again”. With the close at 5319.31, models flipped to a bullish bias. A daily close below 5280 will take the models to neutral bias, and a daily close below 5245 will flip them to bearish bias. It remains to be seen if yesterday’s bullish bias flip can be sustained with today’s and Monday’s daily closes.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 5331, 5353, or 5362 with a 6-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 5327, 5350, or 5360 with a 6-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 5330, 5352, 5361, or 5365, and explicit short exits on a break above 5328, 5351, or 5361. Models also indicate instituting a break-even stop (which would trigger on a break above/below the entry level) once a position hits a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:32am EST.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention), unless otherwise specified.
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check our latest Results posting to see for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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