S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 01/04
The Santa Claus rally of 2023 came in early and left early, with a loss of about 1% for the index during the period. As per our earlier trading plans published during the “Santa Claus Rally” period, looks like the early Santa was followed by the late Grinch. Tomorrow’s NFP could add more clarity to the near term directionality in the markets.
On Friday, 12/29, our trading plans stated: “While a consolidation is likely in the new year, our models indicate no immediate threat of a bearish leg as long as the index is above 4770 on a daily close basis. The “Santa Claus Rally” still has two more trading days in the New Year to go. Hence, if you are itching to go short the market, it might be prudent to wait for January 4th, 2024″.
The index closed on 12/29 at 4769.83, just 0.17 below our 4770 level, indicating a potential down move. As of this morning, the index futures are pointing to an open down about 50 points below that level. But, we would like to reiterate our caution from 12/29 to the bears – “if you are itching to go short the market, it might be prudent to wait for (the daily close of) January 4th, 2024”.
Whether you are a Bull or a Bear, wish you all Good Luck with your trading!
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4741, 4730, 4723, 4712, or 4701 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4739, 4708, 4699, 4692, or 4679 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4728 or 4720, and explicit short exits on a break above 4683 or 4694. Models also indicate a break-even exit once a position is in profit by 4-points. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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