S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/21
As our daily trading plans reinforced before the FOMC meeting yesterday: “…any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to “being done” can spark a frenzied rally in the coming weeks but any unexpectedly hawkish indications could further accelerate the downward push. Nobody has the crystal ball that can tell which way this could go until after the FOMC meeting”. The unexpectedly hawkish Fed stance drove the markets down and continuing to push it lower this morning.
Our published trading plans on Friday, 09/15 stated: “Models continue to indicate that the index has to close above 4507 on a daily close basis to flip to a bullish bias. Between 4460 and 4507, models indicate an indeterminate bias”. With the index closing just below the lower end of this range (at 4450.32), these levels are still broadly applicable for this week. This week’s 4505 level could be the top for the short term, and the 4507 level needs to be broken above for any meaningful bullishness to return to the markets.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4452, 4421, 4403, or 4376 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4448, 4435, 4416, 4400, or 4367 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4373, and explicit short exits on a break above 4440. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:31am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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