S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 3/14/24
This morning’s PPI numbers came in much hotter than expected, but the futures markets so far have been ignoring it and indicate positive opening to the session. It remains to be seen how the price action develops into the session later.
While the sticky inflation numbers could raise some concerns about the economy and the much-hoped-for soft landing, the cooling of the jobs numbers could put some floor under the index on rate-cut hopes. However, this mix could lead to choppy action surrounding potential concerns about softening economy and, yes, “valuation”. But, until otherwise noted, our models indicate that the risk continues to be markets pushing to the upside than to the downside, so, bears – if any still left out there – need to be cautious about jumping the gun and taking on premature shorts.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 5220, 5200, 5181, 5150, or 5126 with a 7-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 5214, 5197, 5177, 5140, or 5122 with a 7-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 5187 or 5147, and explicit short exits on a break above 5190 or 5142. Models also indicate instituting a break-even stop (which would trigger on a break above/below the entry level) once a position reached a 3-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 9:31am EST.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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