S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 7/25/24
As of Friday, 7/19/24, morning we have negated our bullish bias, and adapted a bearish bias with the index closing at 5544.59 – just less than half a point below our critical level that we have been publishing for the last few weeks – in the previous session. Yesterday’s market rout brought the daily close far below that level, which reinforced our bearish bias. Our positional models continue to hold this bearish bias while the index is below 5485 on a daily close basis. It takes a daily close above 5525 for our models to turn bullish again. Between 5485 and 5525, our positional bias would be indeterminate.
The index’s drop following the earnings of Tesla and Alphabet could be exacerbated by the airlines’ disappointing earnings, as investors’ attention could be shifting from the election year gyrations back to the basics of economy: earnings, macro economic developments and valuation considerations. How long that attention would stay on those factors is anybody’s guess.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 5484, 5460, 5455, 5428, or 5377 with a 7-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 5478, 5452, 5427, 5412, or 5372 with a 7-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 5497, 5483, 5458, or 5375, and explicit short exits on a break above 5480, 5415, or 5375. Models also indicate instituting a break-even stop (which would trigger on a break above/below the entry level) once a position hits a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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