Trading Plans for TUE. 10/01/24 – Start of New Trading Month v. Geopolitical Uncertainty and Global Slowdown Concerns
The new-era of rate cut regime has not (yet) proved to put any new fire under the already steaming hot markets since the post-FOMC (despite testing new record highs). Germany’s inflation numbers could add fresh concerns to the concerns about China slowing down and whether China’s stimulus would be sufficient to rekindle growth. Nevertheless, today – especially heading into the close (just like yesterday’s Quarter-end Window Dressing) – new trading month start could play a role, unless the macro economic worries grow stronger.
As we stated in our pre-FOMC trading plans: “Last week’s CPI and PPI data seem to be adding to the non-farm payrolls data from last Friday in ramping up further the hopes of a Goldilocks scenario to continue on and of a successful soft landing from the Fed”. Unless some new data show otherwise, we carry this view for the near term.
With the index closing at 5618.26 on Wed. 9/18/24, our positional models are deemed to have flipped to a short at that price. Positional Models carried that short into today’s open, and indicate exiting this short at the close if the index is above 5765 and carrying it forward otherwise.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 5768 5746 5715 5704 5690 with a 7-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 5672 5699 5709 5714 5767 5727 5721 5744 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits with a stop loss at 5703 (if touched from above), and explicit short exits at 5738 5728 5722 5710 5690 5700 (if touched from below). Models also indicate instituting a break-even stop (which would trigger on an if-touched from above/below basis when in effect) once a position hits a 3-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:06am ET.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight (unless otherwise stated explicitly) – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check our latest Results posting to see for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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