S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 5/14/24
Based on the futures market action pre-market, this morning’s hotter-than-expected PPI does not seem to be of any concern to the market’s rally. With the softer-than-feared May’s NFP release on the heels of the more-dovish-than-expected Powell’s tone during the post-FOMC presser, the rate cut hopes are now back in full swing, and our 5116 level was convincingly broken above, flipping our models to a bullish bias post-NFP. The markets appear to be gunning for another record high in the near term, but it could be a precarious battle to get there.
Models would carry the bullish bias while the index is above 5185 on a daily close basis. It takes a daily close below 5120 for the models to burn bearish. Between 5185 and 5120, models would be in an indeterminate mode.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 5186, 5201, 5231, or 5241 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 5183, 5197, 5210, or 5227 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 5237, and explicit short exits on a break above 5212. Models also indicate instituting a break-even stop (which would trigger on a break above/below the entry level) once a position reached a 3-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36am EST.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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