Trading Plans for WED. 9/18/24 – New Interest Rate Regime Begins…
Today’s FOMC rate decisions – regardless of whether it is going to be a 25 basis points raise or a 50 basis points – is going to mark a historic end to the most aggressive interest rate hiking regime in over two decades, and begins a new era of rate cuts for the Fed. The pace and the magnitudes are what the pundits and the markets are going to speculate about – not the direction. A no-rate-cut is the only surprise the markets can run into in theory, but the odds of the Fed dealing that kind of shock to the markets are almost zero. So, it is either 25 or 50.
As we stated in our previous trading plans: “Last week’s CPI and PPI data seem to be adding to the non-farm payrolls data from last Friday in ramping up further the hopes of a Goldilocks scenario to continue on and of a successful soft landing from the Fed”. Unless otherwise some new data surprises are dealt, we carry this view for the near term.
As of Wed, 9/11/24, after closing out a short position with 70 points gain, our positional models went flat. Positional models indicate taking the following position at the close of today’s session (on the last tick): long position if the index is above 5650, short position if the index is below 5640, and flat if the index is between 5640 and 5650.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 5665 5623 5601 5653, and going short on a break below 5664 5617 5599 5649.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 5622 5652, and explicit short exits on a break above 5618 5650. Models also indicate instituting a break-even stop (which would trigger on a break above/below any entry level in the same direction) once a position hits a 3-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 1:57pm ET.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention), unless otherwise specified.
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check our latest Results posting to see for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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