Results of Published Model Trades for FRI 08/16
In the Results published for Thursday, 08/15, we wrote the following about the hyper trading activity by our models on that day: “This activity is reminiscent of last Wednesday’s (08/07/19) when there were a total of 23 trades by the models. The following session saw a clear and large move up, and this pattern is likely to repeat in the next session” (click here to verify this reference/read the full article).
Consistent with our forecast, Friday saw a clear and large move up – without any real, tangible new developments on the front of economy or the trade war (other than routine speculation about their possible courses) – giving a decent edge to our Friday’s trading plans. Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month.
(please click here to view the Summary of the Market Action)
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: Open long from Thursday, 08/15 (with entry point at 2835 and 9-point trailing stop) survived the day’s session, captured the full move up on the day, and is being carried to Monday’s session with the trailing stop trigger anchored at 2884.63.
Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to +16.20 index points in gains on one long. This clean trading activity was consistent with our forecast published with Thursday’s results which stated: “The following session saw a clear and large move up, and this pattern is likely to repeat in the next session barring any unexpected headlines overnight” (click here to verify this reference/read the full article).
THE DETAILS:
NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.
The trades given below are not reflective of or indicative of any specific outcomes for any specific individual. Your exact results would vary widely, depending on the time frame you use – tick chart, 1-min chart, 5-min chart, 15-min chart etc, as well as the quality of the execution of your broker, the stop levels you use based on your risk tolerance and your trading style.
These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this article for additional notes and disclaimers..
Medium-Frequency Models – Trading Plan Outcomes/Results:
The models carried into the Friday session an open long from Thursday (opened at 2835 with a 9-point trailing stop with a trigger at 2946.00). With the sustained spike up the index experienced throughout the session, the long survived the 9-point trail (at times, narrowly survived) and scaled to the session high of 2893.63 reached around 3:55pm. This lifted the trailing stop to 2884.63, and the trailing stop trigger anchored there at session end and the long is being carried over to Monday’s session.
Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, these models do NOT open any new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.
Aggressive Intraday Models – Trading Plan Outcomes/Results:
The index broke above the 2868 level within the first couple of minutes, triggering a long with a 7-point trailing stop.
The short reached an interim high of 2891.20, lifting the trailing stop to 2884.20. This stop was hit around 11:20am, closing the position with a gain of 16.20 index points. The models stayed flat for the rest of the session.
Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. Due to the intraday nature of these aggressive models, they indicate closing any open trades at 3:55pm and remaining flat into the session close. No opening of new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.
NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.