Results of Published Model Trades for THU 08/15
Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month.
(please click here to view the Summary of the Market Action)
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: Lead to -7.00 index points in losses on one short and carried one long with entry point at 2835 and 9-point trailing stop trigger at 2846.
Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to +72.59 index points in gains on ten longs and ten shorts. This excessive trading activity is reminiscent of last Wednesday’s (08/07/19) when there were a total of 23 trades by the models. The following session saw a clear and large move up, and this pattern is likely to repeat in the next session barring any unexpected headlines overnight.
THE DETAILS:
NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.
The trades given below are not reflective of or indicative of any specific outcomes for any specific individual. Your exact results would vary widely, depending on the time frame you use – tick chart, 1-min chart, 5-min chart, 15-min chart etc, as well as the quality of the execution of your broker, the stop levels you use based on your risk tolerance and your trading style.
These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this article for additional notes and disclaimers..
Medium-Frequency Models – Trading Plan Outcomes/Results:
The index came within 0.1 index points close to the 2835 level around 9:40am and 11:20am but could not breach it and rebounded. Finally, the index fell below it and broke below the 2828 level, triggering short with a 10-point trailing stop. The index broke above the 2835 level around 2:10pm, closing the short with a loss of 7.00 index points and opening a long with a 9-point trailing stop.
The long reached an interim high of 2855.00 reached around 3:55pm, lifting the trailing stop to 2846.00. The long narrowly survived through the end of the session and is being carried over to the next session.
Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, these models do NOT open any new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.
Aggressive Intraday Models – Trading Plan Outcomes/Results:
The index broke above the 2851 level within the first couple of minutes, triggering a long with a 6-point trailing stop. The index broke below the 2848 level around 9:35am, closing the long with a loss of 3.00 index points and opening a short with a 7-point trailing stop.
The index broke above the 2838 level around 9:40am, closing the short with a gain of 10.00 index points, and opening a long(#2).
The index broke below the 2848 level around 9:50am, closing the long with a gain of 10.00 index points, and opening a short(#2).
The index broke above the 2851 level around 9:55am, closing the short with a loss of 3.00 index points and opening a long(#3).
The index rose above and then opened below the 2854 level around 10:00am, closing the long with a gain of 3.00 index points and opening a short(#3).
The index broke above the 2851 level around 10:05am, closing the short with a gain of 3.00 index points and opening a long(#4).
The index crossed below the 2848 level within the next couple of minutes, closing the long with a loss of 3.00 index points and opening a short(#4).
The index crossed above the 2851 level within the next couple of minutes, closing the short with a loss of 3.00 index points and opening a long(#5).
The index broke below the 2854 level around 10:15am, closing the long with a gain of 3.00 index points and opening a short(#5).
The index broke below the 2851 level around 10:20am, closing the short with a gain of 3.00 index points and opening a long(#6).
The index broke below the 2854 level around 10:25am, closing the long with a gain of 3.00 index points and opening a short(#6).
The short reached an interim low of 2842.90 around 10:30am, moving the trailing stop to 2849.90. This stop was hit around 10:35am, closing the short with a gain of 4.10 index points.
The index broke above the 2851 level within the next minute, opening a long(#7). The index then broke below the 2848 level around 10:40am, closing the long with a loss of 3.00 index points and opening a short(#7).
The index crossed above the 2851 level around 10:45am, closing the short with a loss of 3.00 index points and opening a long(#8).
The index broke the 2848 level around 11:00am, closing the long with a loss of 3.00 index points and opening a short(#8).
The index broke above the 2838 level around 11:25am, closing the short with a gain of 10.00 index points and opening a long(#9).
The index reached an interim high of 2855.30 around 12:10pm, and then broke below the 2854 level closing the long with a gain of 16.00 index points and opening a short(#9).
The short narrowly survived the 7-point trailing stop between 12:30pm and 1:25pm price action, and then reached the session low of 2825.51 reached around 2:00pm, moving the trailing stop trigger to 2832.51. This stop was hit around 2:10pm, closing the short with a gain of 21.49 index points.
The index broke above the 2838 level around 2:10pm, triggering a long(#10). The long narrowly survived the trailing stop to reach above and then below the 2848 level around 3:15pm, closing the long with a gain of 10.00 index points and opening a short(#10).
The short reached an interim low of 2844.50 and then rose to break above the 2851 level around 3:45pm, closing the short with a loss of 3.00 index points. Owing to the aggressive intraday mandate, the models did not open a new long as it was 3:45pm, and stayed flat for the rest of the session.
Thus, the aggressive intraday models’ trading plans lead to excessively high number of trades of a total of twenty trades (ten longs and ten shorts), and +72.59 index points in gains. This activity is reminiscent of last Wednesday’s (08/07/19) when there were a total of 23 trades by the models. The following session saw a clear and large move up, and this pattern is likely to repeat in the next session.
Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. Due to the intraday nature of these aggressive models, they indicate closing any open trades at 3:55pm and remaining flat into the session close. No opening of new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.
NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.