S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 5/2/24
In our trading plans published yesterday, FOMC day, 5/1/24, we stated: “…Yesterday, Monday, 4/29/24, the index closed by a hair-thin margin above that level with a close at 5116.17. Keeping in mind the FOMC event tomorrow, our models are ignoring that close above our level and are looking for a confirmation”. Following a spike up after the FOMC release, the index gave up all the gains and ended lower after the end of the Powell press conference, cementing the 5116 level as a strong resistance to overcome for the bulls.
From our last week’s key levels, the 5056 appears back in play today, with the early session rise in the futures market. It remains to be seen if the index can manage a sustained push above that level. Any failure around that level would push our models to adapt a bearish bias, to be continued while below 5056 on a daily close basis.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 5001, 5016, 5058, or 5069 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4997, 5013, 5052, 5032, or 5066 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 5056 and short exits on a break above 5055 or 5037. Models also indicate instituting a break-even stop (which would trigger on a break above/below the entry level) once a position reached a 3-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36am EST.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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